Editor’s note: This market commentary is provided by the Dairy Division atFCStone in Chicago, Ill.
The spot block market fell 18¢ on the day, while barrels dipped 17.25¢. One may have expected more bloodshed in the Class III futures market given the significant drop in cheese, but declines were relatively minimal. December 2014 Class III was down 33¢, but other months through November 2015 were 1¢-17¢ lower.
With price pressure on the 2015 Class III market, it seems as though the Class IV market has little choice but to follow along. NFDM futures prices were under the most significant pressure, despite the spot market actually closing 0.5¢ higher. Prices now sit at sub-$1.20 for a number of 2015 months, and that seems to have brought some renewed buy-side interest.
The spot butter market was the lone spot session to close unchanged, but that didn’t stop spillover selling from hitting the early 2015 futures contracts. It wouldn’t come as any surprise to see the butter market make a move to the downside today or by the end of the week, given what transpired in cheese and the fact that we are moving past holiday demand.
Nov. 11 spot session results:
Block cheese: $2.0000 (down 18.0¢)
Barrel cheese: $1.9475 (down 17.25¢)
Grade A NFDM: $1.1775 (up 0.5¢)
Butter: $2.0000 (unchanged)
• Class III & Dry Whey futures to open mixed
• Cheese futures to open unchanged to lower
• Butter, Class IV & NFDM futures to open lower
Soybeans grabbed the bull by the horns and took off to the upside yesterday as we struggle to find enough soybean meal to balance strong export demand and the need to refill the domestic supply pipeline. December meal finished up $19.70/ton, pulling January soybean futures up 38.25¢, to $10.64/bushel.
Corn and wheat seemed to reluctantly tag along. December corn was up 4.5¢, at $3.7375/bushel.
• Corn to open steady to higher
• Soybeans and Soybean Meal to open higher
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