2011/2012 corn crop forecast lowered

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The November 9th Crop Production report forecast U.S. corn production for 2011/12 at 12.310 billion bushels, down 123 million from the October forecast. At this volume, it would be the fourth largest crop on record. Based on conditions as of November 1, yields are expected to average 146.7 bushels per acre, compared with 148.1 bushels per acre forecast in October and 152.8 bushels per acre estimated for 2010/11.

Beginning stocks and imports are unchanged this month, resulting in total supply of 13,453 million bushels, 123 million below last month’s forecast. The November 1 corn objective yield data indicate higher yields for Iowa and Ohio, but reductions for a number of major corn-producing States, including Illinois, Minnesota, the Dakotas, and Kansas.

Feed and residual use is projected 100 million bushels lower on the smaller crop and lower expected meat production, driven by reduced prospects for broilers. FSI use is unchanged at 6,410 million bushels. Corn export prospects are unchanged this month as large current outstanding sales are offset by expected stiff competition in coming months from large foreign grain supplies.

Forecast corn ending stocks for 2011/12 are reduced 23 million bushels from October as reductions in supply exceed reductions in use. At 843 million bushels, ending stocks would be the lowest since 1995/96 and represent a carryout of 6.7 percent of expected total use. In 1995/96, carryout dropped to 5 percent of expected use. The projected season-average price range is unchanged at $6.20 to $7.20 per bushel.



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