Arctic air expected in northern states

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Weather Services International is expecting the January through March period to be colder than normal across much of the northern half of the U.S., but above-normal temperatures will be common across the southern U.S., especially in the Southwest. The WSI seasonal outlook uses a reference standard of the 30 years from 1981 to 2010 in determining above or below normal.

"After another unusually warm December across much of the U.S., the pattern is now transitioning to a more normal winter look," said Todd Crawford, Ph.D., WSI chief meteorologist. "An atmospheric blocking event is developing at very high latitudes north of Alaska which will allow for very cold air to move southward into southern Canada and parts of the northern U.S. However, the southward extent of the cold air will be limited, as a very strong westerly subtropical jet stream will keep parts of the southern U.S. quite mild. By February, we expect an increased cold risk (in both spatial extent and magnitude), as the evolution of the Madden-Julian Oscillation will likely be more favorable for sustained cold.

click image to zoomWeather Services International “Further, there are indications that the stratospheric polar vortex will weaken considerably during January. This typically results in a pattern change towards colder temperatures across many mid-latitude population centers throughout the Northern Hemisphere. By March, the impacts from the multi-year drought across the Plains will likely favor an early emergence of spring across much of the central and eastern US."

In January, WSI sees the monthly breakdown as:

Northeast - Colder than normal, except northern New England

Southeast - Warmer than normal

N. Central - Colder than normal

S. Central - Warmer than normal

Northwest - Colder than normal

Southwest - Warmer than normal

 

In February, WSI forecasts:

Northeast - Colder than normal

Southeast - Warmer than normal

N. Central  - Colder than normal

S. Central - Warmer than normal

Northwest - Warmer than normal

Southwest - Warmer than normal

 

In March, WSI forecasts:

Northeast -Warmer than normal

Southeast - Warmer than normal

N. Central - Warmer than normal

S. Central - Warmer than normal

Northwest - Colder than normal

Southwest - Warmer than normal

WSI provides customized weather information to global commodity traders via its WSI Trader Web site.



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