The June survey revealed planted acres of corn of 97.379 million acres, 97,000 acres more than March planting intentions, slightly larger than planted acreage of a year ago, and about two million acres above the average pre-report guess. Compared to March intentions, acreage estimates were larger for Michigan, Missouri, Nebraska, and Texas and unchanged or smaller for most other major corn producing states. Acreage of corn to be harvested for grain was estimated at 89.135 million acres, 1.76 million more than harvested last year. The difference between planted acreage and acreage harvested for grain of 8.244 million acres is smaller than the difference of 9.78 million experienced after the drought of last year, but is about one million acres more than is typical following a favorable growing season. Harvested acreage of other feed grains (sorghum, barley, and oats) was estimated at 10.356 million acres, 1.112 million more than harvested last year.
The June 1 stocks estimates for corn and soybeans confirmed very small inventories and the need to continue to limit consumption until new crop supplies are available. As a result, old crop corn and soybean cash prices are expected to be well supported through the summer months. There is considerably more uncertainty about new crop production and price prospects. We expect planted and harvested acreage of both crops to be less than revealed in the June survey. However, production will be influenced more by yield prospects than by acreage estimates. The period for determining yields is just beginning, with July and August weather critical for both crops. Based on current crop condition ratings and near term weather forecasts, prospects for yields likely exceed current market expectations, particularly for corn. If weekly condition ratings remain high, new crop prices are expected to remain under pressure.