Corn planting progress raises yield prospects for 2012/13

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As of May 6, 71 percent of the U.S. corn crop had been planted, compared with an average of 47 percent in 2007-11 and 32 percent in 2011/12. As of the same date, 32 percent of the expected crop had emerged, compared with an average of 13 percent in 2007-11 and 6 percent last year. Early planting boosts the projected yield for 2012/13 to 166.0 bushels per acre, compared with last year’s weather-reduced yield of 147.2. Rapid planting and emergence is also likely to affect supplies during the last quarter of the 2011/12 marketing year, resulting in reduced prospects for the June-August quarter feed and residual disappearance.

Corn production for 2012/13 is projected at a record high 14,790 million bushels, 20 percent over last year’s crop. With carryin of 851 million bushels and imports of 15 million, supplies are projected at 15,656 million bushels. Total use year-to-year is projected to gain 1,120 million bushels on higher feed and residual and export demand. Ending stocks for 2012/13 are expected to be up 1,030 million bushels.

Record foreign coarse grain production and the huge U.S. corn crop boost 2012/13 global coarse grain supplies to record levels; however, with foreign coarse grain use increasing faster than production and less competition from low-priced wheat, prospects for U.S. corn and sorghum exports are also raised.

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