The forecast U.S. corn price received by farmers for 2011/12 is reduced by $0.30 per bushel on both the high and low end of the range to $5.90 to $6.90 per bushel, reflecting recent market trends and abundant foreign supplies of corn and feed quality wheat. The season average price received by farmers in 2010/11 was $5.18 per bushel. Food, seed and industrial (FSI) use is lowered 5 million bushels due to lower expected first-quarter use for high fructose corn syrup (HFCS) due to the reduced export pace in recent months. The change in FSI is reflected in an increase in ending stocks to 848 million bushels, compared with last month’s 843 million. Total use is forecast at 12,605 million bushels, compared with 13,054 million in 2010/11.
Forecast 2011/12 U.S. sorghum exports are lowered 20 million bushels, reflecting slowing year-to-date sales and shipments. Feed and residual use is raised by the same volume, leaving ending stocks unchanged.
Reflecting the lower corn price forecast this month, the projected sorghum price received by farmers for 2011/12 is also reduced $0.30 per bushel on both ends of the range, resulting in a forecast of $5.70 to $6.70 per bushel. The season average price received by farmers in 2010/11 was $5.02 per bushel.
Minor Changes for Oats and Barley
Forecast 2011/12 U.S. oats imports are raised 5 million bushels to 95 million reflecting abundant supplies in Canada due to a large crop and the strong U.S. import pace in recent months. The increase results in higher projected ending stocks.
The projected range for 2011/12 oats prices received by farmers is narrowed $0.05 per bushel on each end to $3.20 to $3.60 per bushel. The season-average price received by farmers in 2010/11 was $2.52 per bushel.
There are no supply and use changes for barley this month. Forecast grower prices were reduced $0.25 on the upper end of the range and $0.15 on the lower end, for a 2011/12 forecast of $5.20 to $5.80 per bushel. The price reduction mostly reflects lower-than-expected malting barley prices to date. The 2010/11 season average farm price for barley in 2010/11 was $3.86 per bushel.