DHM Numbers: Dairy export estimate raised

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FY 2014 dairy export forecast raised to $6.8 billion

If projections are accurate, the value of U.S. dairy product exports will double imported dairy product values in fiscal year 2014 (FY ’14), according to USDA’s quarterly Ag Trade Outlook report released on May 29.

FY ’14 (October 2013 through September 2014) dairy exports are now expected to hit $6.8 billion, up $500 million from the February forecast, as exports are higher than anticipated due to continuing strong global demand.

U.S. dairy exports were valued at $6.13 billion in FY ’13.

Meanwhile, the FY ’14 U.S. dairy import forecast was left unchanged from February projections, at $3.2 billion. The forecast for FY ’14 cheese imports was unchanged at $1.3 billion.

FY ’13 dairy product imports were estimated at $3.0 billion, with cheese at $1.1 billion.

Overall, the FY ’14 forecast for agricultural exports was raised $6.9 billion from February’s forecast, to a record $149.5 billion. U.S. agricultural imports for fiscal year 2014 are forecast at $110.5 billion, up $500 million from the February outlook.

The forecast trade balance in FY ’14, up $6.3 billion from February, to $39.0 billion, the second highest ever.

Low U.S. energy prices and increasingly available credit make the U.S. agricultural export trade outlook promising in 2014. The dollar is projected to be flat in 2014 on top of 2013's 0.7% appreciation.

 

Daily CME closing prices

Daily CME Cash Trading on Thursday, May 29, 2014

 

 

 

Daily

 

Close

Change

 

($/lb.)

(¢/lb.)

Cheddar barrels

1.9200

-2.50

Cheddar blocks

1.9600

-4.00

NFDM Grade A

1.8325

1.00

Butter Grade AA

2.2950

n.c.

 

Weekly NDPSR

Weekly National Dairy Product Sales Report

Week ending May 24, 2014

 

 

 

 

Change from

 

Ave. price

previous week

 

($/lb.)

(¢/lb.)

Butter

2.12

6.1

Cheddar blocks

2.11

-4.8

Cheddar barrels

2.10

-6.9

Dry whey

0.681

0.8

NFDM

1.81

-4.1

 

New Holland Sales Stables

Dairy replacement sales results from New Holland, Pa. on May 28.

 Compared to last week, fresh cows were generally steady on moderate demand

and offerings. Demand was moderate for cows. Springing heifers, short-bred

heifers, and open heifers sold generally steady. Demand was good on an active

trade. Wednesday's supply included 79 fresh milking cows, 22 short-bred cows,

13 springing cows, 44 short-bred heifers, 51 springing heifers, 93 open

heifers, and 21 bulls. Prices are for Holsteins on a per-head basis unless otherwise noted.

 

Fresh Cows

Supreme: 2350-2800

Approved: 1900-2300

Medium: 1400-1825

Common: 1000-1375

 

Short bred cows (1-3 months)

Medium: 1500-1675

Common: 1200-1375

 

Bred cows (4-6 months)

Medium: 1425-1500

 

Springing cows (bred 7-9 months)

Supreme: 1950-2200

Medium: 1450-1650

 

Springing heifers (7-9 months)

Supreme: 2200-2400

Approved: 1775-2175

Medium: 1475-1750

Common: 1175-1350

 

Bred heifers (4-6 months)

Approved: 1600-1800

Medium: 1400-1600

Common: 1100-1250

 

Short bred heifers (1-3 months)

Approved: 1500-1675

Common: 975-1150

 

Open Heifers

300-600 lbs

Approved: 575-885

Medium: 360-525

 

600-900 lbs

Approved: 875-1025

Medium: 825-925

 

900-1200 lbs

Approved: 1100-1225

 

Idaho Producers Livestock Marketing Association

Dairy replacement sales results from Jerome, Idaho, on May 28:

Springers (top 120): $1920 with top of $2500

Fresh heifers: $1800-$1975

Short bred heifers: $1200-$1500

Open heifers: (600-700 lbs.): $162/cwt.

 

Weekly ethanol production, corn use

Ethanol production data for the week ending May 23:

Ethanol production: 38.9 million gallons/day

Corn used: 14.06 million bushels/day

DIstillers grains production: 92,232 metric tons/day

Source: Renewable Fuels Association



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