DHM Numbers: Milk COP up slightly in May

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Dairy consumer, producer price forecasts

USDA’s Economic Research Service forecasts consumer dairy product prices will rise 3.0%-4.0% in 2014, slightly above the anticipated increase for all foods either consumed at or away from home. The dairy price projections were raised from a month ago.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for food measures the average change over time in the prices paid by urban consumers for a representative market basket of consumer goods and services.

May 2014 dairy product prices rose 0.6% from April 2014, and 4.2% compared to May 2013. Dairy product prices rose just 0.1% in 2013, after increasing 2.1% in 2012.

ERS also analyzes and models forecasts for the Producer Price Index (PPI), the average change in prices paid to domestic producers for their output. May 2014 farm-level milk prices declined 3.1% from April 2014, but remained 25.3% compared to May 2013. May 2014 wholesale dairy prices declined 0.8% from April 2014, but remained 12.6% above May 2013.

According to full-year PPI projections, 2014 farm-level milk prices are expected to rise 5.0%-6.0%, after increasing 8.1% in 2013. Wholesale dairy prices are projected to increase 4.0% to 5.0% in 2014, after increasing 3.6% in 2013. In 2012, farm-level milk prices declined 8.1%, while wholesale prices dipped 1.6%.

 

U.S. monthly dairy costs of production, $/cwt. of milk sold, 2014

 

 

Item

January

February

March

April

May

Feed costs

13.26

13.25

13.04

13.23

13.32

Operating costs/1

16.46

16.41

16.14

16.32

16.40

Allocated overhead/2

8.43

8.28

8.21

8.15

8.19

Total costs

24.89

24.70

24.35

24.47

24.59

1/ includes feed; 2/ includes labor

 

 

 

 

Source: USDA Economic Research Service

 

 

 









May COP up slightly

Preliminary monthly total average feed costs rose slightly in May, with increased costs to produce homegrown feeds offsetting a small decline in purchased feeds, according to USDA’s monthly Milk Cost of Production report. USDA cost estimates are based on total farm costs per hundredweight of milk sold.

Total feed costs averaged $13.32/cwt., up 9¢/cwt. from revised April 2014 estimates (see table, above). May 2013 estimates were not available due to budget sequestration. May purchased feed costs, at $6.63/cwt., were down 22¢, the lowest since March 2012. However, May homegrown feed cost were up 31¢/cwt. from April, to $6.53/cwt., and the highest since July 2013.

Feed represented about 54% of total costs in May 2014.

Total costs, at $24.59/cwt. in May 2014, were up 12¢ from April. Other than feed, there were minimal changes in other operating and allocated overhead costs compared to previous months.

 

Weekly NDPSR prices

Weekly National Dairy Product Sales Report

Week ending June 25, 2014

 

 

 

 

Change from

 

Ave. price

previous week

 

($/lb.)

(¢/lb.)

Butter

2.17

-1.6

Cheddar blocks

2.03

1.7

Cheddar barrels

2.01

-0.5

Dry whey

0.680

0.3

NFDM

1.87

1.1

 

Weekly California NFDM price

California NFDM average price

 

Week ending

Avg. price ($/ lb.)

7-day sales (lb.)

June 20

1.8256

10,238,432

June 13

1.8407

11,242,282

June 6

1.8454

10,162,093

May 30

1.9057

8,383,800

May 23

1.7723

23,754,750

 

Weekly ethanol production, corn use

Ethanol production data for the week ending June 20:

Ethanol production: 38.4 million gallons/day. The four-week average for ethanol production calculates to an annualized rate of 14.53 billion gallons.

Corn used: 14.22 million bushels/day

DIstillers grains production: 93,326 metric tons/day

Source: Renewable Fuels Association

 

Mammoth Cave Dairy Auction

Dairy replacement sales results from Smiths Grove, Ky., on June 24:

(Holsteins, price per head, unless otherwise noted)

 

Springers: 2-3 years old, 5-8 months bred

Supreme: 1700-2075

Approved: 1500-1625

Medium: 1250-1400

Common: 900-1175

 

Fresh Milking Cows: 2-4 years old

Approved: 1650-1675

Common: 1085-1200

 

Short Bred: 2-3 years old, 1-4 months bred

Supreme: 1525-1650

Medium: 985

 

Open Heifers: (Supreme & Approved)

300-400 lbs. 435-575

400-500 lbs. 575-935

500-600 lbs. 610-985

Holstein Heifers Calves: Small 160-200; Medium-Large 230-330.

 

Springfield Livestock Marketing Center

Dairy replacement sales results from Springfield, Mo., on June 24. Demand was moderate on a moderate supply, of which two-thirds were open and bred heifers. The supply consisted of 16% springer heifers, 24% bred heifers, 23% open heifers, 2% fresh heifers and cows and 1% baby calves. The balance was made up of dairy steers, beef calves and weigh cows. Prices quoted for Holsteins unless noted otherwise. All prices quoted on a per-head basis.

Springer heifers (bred 7-9 mos)

  Supreme: 2035-2400

  Approved: 1675-2000, Crossbreds 1435-1675, Jerseys 1350-1525

  Medium: 1275-1635

 

Heifers (bred 3-6 mos)

  Supreme: 1925-2175

  Approved: 1550-1875, Crossbreds 1375-1675, Jerseys 1600-1675

  Medium: 1300-1475

 

Heifers (bred 1-3 mos)

  Supreme: 1790-1900

  Approved: 1575-1790

  Medium: 1275-1550

 

Open Heifers

  Approved

            480-492 lbs 840-920, pkg 4 hd 565 lbs Jersey 980

            532-534 lbs 910-1000, indv. 555 lbs Jersey 910, indv 580 lb Crossbred 960

            616-663 lbs 1130-1240, pair 608 lbs Brown Swiss 1190, Crossbreds 970-1110

            725-785 lbs 1060-1140, pair 755 lb Crossbreds 950

            Pkg 3 hd 835 lbs Holsteins 1325

            900-984 lbs 1225-1275, indv. 945 lbs Brown Swiss 1425

  Medium and Approved mixed

            238-295 lbs Crossbreds 410-440

            340-395 lbs Crossbreds 490-630

            420-499 lbs pkg 7 hd 790, Crossbreds 630-780

            510-575 lbs 840-860, Crossbreds 780-860

            630-695 lbs 910-1030, Crossbreds 835-980

            820-890 lbs 980-1175

 

Springer Cows

  Approved: ind 1625

  Medium: Few 1100-1300

 

Baby Calves

  Holstein heifers – Large 420, Small 310

  Holstein bulls – Small 230-290

  Jersey bulls – Small 175

 



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