Dairy markets: ‘Flush’ picture still unclear

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Editor’s note: This market commentary is provided by the Dairy Division at FCStone in Chicago, Ill.

Class III futures consolidated yesterday after additional spot market declines failed to materialize, settling anywhere from -6¢ to +24¢ in 2014, while 2015 contracts were mostly flat. We are hearing that cheese production continues to be mixed, and trepidation continues to persist on the demand side as buyers step aside. Although a late flush is expected, it does not seem that either side has a clear picture of what to expect, even as the general consensus surrounding production is less robust than previous estimates in the Upper Midwest. Since May 1 the June Class III contract has traded in a $1.12/cwt. range. The recent volatility highlights the apprehension on both sides as concerns surrounding weather, feed quality and abundant supply of milk in Europe.

 

May 14 spot session results:

Block cheese: $1.9975 (unchanged)

Barrel cheese: $1.9600 (unchanged)

Grade A NFDM: $1.7800 (unchanged)

Butter: $2.1600 (dow, 1.5¢)

 

Today's expectations:

• Class III & Cheese to open lower

• Dry Whey to open mixed

• Class IV & Butter to open mixed

• NFDM to open lower 

 

Grain futures

July corn settled lower yesterday on improved U.S. planting weather, although substantial areas in the northern Corn Belt have been left unplanted.   Cooler temperatures are expected over the next week as rain approaches. July soybeans ended the day slightly higher, with traders looking for the strong April NOPA report out tomorrow.

 

Today’s expectation:

• Grain complex to open mixed

 

FC Stone's annual Dairy Outlook Conference will be held June 18-19, in Chicago. Visit www.intlfcstone.com/events for information.

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