Dairy markets: How long will bulls run?

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Editor’s note: This market commentary is provided by the Dairy Division at FCStone in Chicago, Ill.

Class III futures ended last week’s trade on a strong note. The 2Q 2014 futures pack average jumped 49¢ on Friday to settle at $21.13/cwt., while adding a total of 63¢ week over week. 

With the spring flush already underway in the Western U.S., and the Midwest about to set in, the question becomes how long can this bullish trend continue in the near term?

For the week ending March 1, dairy cow slaughter under federal inspection increased by 2,800 head (4.8%) week over week, to 61,200 head. The year-to-date slaughter now totals 531,200 head, 8.5% lower than during the same period last year. 

Cash-settled cheese futures finished last week on a bullish note. The 2Q 2014 futures pack closed out the week at $2.0550/lb., up 4.3¢ on the day and gaining 5.83¢ week over week. 

The Class IV 2Q 2014 futures pack fell 8¢ on Friday to settle at $22.37/cwt., yet posted a week-over-week gain of 11¢. NFDM futures closed the week bearish. Butter futures finished Friday’s trading session mixed, with near-term weakness countered by strength in the final four contract months of the year.

FC Stone's annual Dairy Outlook Conference will be held June 18-19, in Chicago. Visit www.intlfcstone.com/events for information.

 

March 14 spot session results:

Block cheese: $2.3625 (up 1.25¢)

Barrel cheese: $2.2625 (down 1.25¢)

Grade A NFDM:  $2.04 (unchanged)

Butter: $1.88 (down 0.5¢)

 

Today's expectations:

• Class III to open sharply higher

• Cheese to open higher

• Dry Whey to open steady to higher

• Class IV to open mixed

• Butter to open slightly lower

• NFDM to open steady to higher

 

Grain futures

Grain markets closed out last week’s trade mixed, as the marketplace looked to the impact of the Crimea referendum vote to add volatility to the marketplace.

 

Today’s expectation:

• Grain complex to open lower

 

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mn  |  March, 17, 2014 at 11:13 AM

this was a waste of time looking at.... the grain "bull" went on for YEARS.... The last time I checked, it took 2 YEARS for a heifer calf to reach the stage of life that she could calve herself and produce milk, once she was born. Just my thoughts, another year without forages, and your guess is as good as mine.


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