The West: The West was generally dry this week with the exception of the extreme Northwest and isolated thunderstorm activity across the region. Drought conditions remain unchanged this week.
Hawaii, Alaska and Puerto Rico: Drought conditions remained unchanged in Alaska and Puerto Rico this week. In Hawaii, mounting agricultural impacts led to the introduction of Extreme Drought (D3) in the northwest of the Big Island and the introduction of Moderate Drought (D1) in western Oahu.
Looking Ahead: During the September 28 – October 3, 2011 time period, there is an enhanced probability of precipitation limited to the Northeast, the Northwest, and the extreme Southwest, early in the period. Later, the above-normal probability of precipitation encompasses most of the West and is eliminated in the Northeast. Below normal temperatures are expected in the eastern part of the country early in the period. Later, the chances shift to near-normal. In the West and central part of the country, temperatures are expected to be above normal throughout the period.
For the ensuing 5 days (October 4 – October 8, 2011), the odds favor cooler-than-normal conditions over much of the Southeast and along the West Coast. Warmer-than-normal to normal conditions are expected across the West, through the Plains and into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. The odds of above-normal precipitation are limited to the West and primarily in the Northwest. Normal to below-normal precipitation is expected across the Southwest, through the center of the country and along the East Coast. In Alaska, the odds favor above normal precipitation across the southern part of the state. Below–normal temperatures are expected in the same part in the southern part of the state. The northern part of the state is expecting above-normal temperatures.
Author: Michael Brewer, National Climatic Data Center, NOAA
D0 ... Abnormally Dry ... used for areas showing dryness but not yet in drought, or for areas recovering from drought.
Drought Intensity Categories
D1 ... Moderate Drought
D2 ... Severe Drought
D3 ... Extreme Drought
D4 ... Exceptional Drought
Drought or Dryness Types
A ... Agricultural
H ... Hydrological