FAPRI plugged those numbers into an economic model used to assess the broader economic impacts of a change in the economy. Subsequently, it estimates the $85.2 million decline in value of crop production would result in a total economic value decline of $156.7 million. The additional losses indicate the effect that the levee breach had beyond agriculture.
The economists relied upon the current market prices, but say if they continue to rise this fall, then the value of the lost crop production will increase. They speculate that some of the flooded land may be planted to soybeans, and say that would lower the economic losses, and they will update their estimates as needed.
The May 2 breaching of the Birds Point Levee in southeastern Missouri flooded 130,000 acres of farmland, causing a potential loss of $85 million for the 2011 crop year. While that is the lost value of crop production, crop production inputs lost and government payments adjust that figure to $42.6 million.