Two unrelated experts are calling for a drop in milk price and oversupply as demand levels out over the next five years. Goldman Sachs estimates that production will grow by 2.6% while demand grows by only 2%. To illustrate the imbalance, an article on quartz.com, “Not even China can drink enough milk to prevent the coming global glut” said that the 2 million ton oversupply represents enough milk to fill 800 Olympic swimming pools.
The Quartz article said that although China is drinking twice as much milk per capita at 51 kg/year - double the country’s rate in 2011 - but still below the world average of 108 kg/per person per year.
Meanwhile, the article says Fonterra is heading for an all-time high in production.
Dean Foods a buy, says Cramer
In response to this situation, CNBC money-man Jim Cramer called for a buy of Dean Foods. Cramer’s show “Mad Money” recommends stock decisions and answers questions from callers in a high-volume fast-paced hour.
Cramer said he likes WhiteWave, the Dean spinoff of organic, soy and almond “milks,” but also sees Dean as a stock based on future profit.
"Dean's most important raw cost is milk," Cramer explained. "And milk prices have increased sharply from $18 for 100 pounds in early 2013 to over $24 this past May; that's a 33 percent increase.
But Cramer sees the December price of $19 for milk as a sign that the May price isn’t a “new normal.” Further he sees that corn and soybean prices have dropped, suggesting the lower milk prices are due.