Society members were asked their expectations of farmland price increases over the next five-years. A response of 4% means that the respondent expected an average increase of 4% in each of the next five years. Responses are
46% expect prices to increase between 1 and 5% yearly over the next five years,
9% expect prices to remain the same over the next five years.
45% expect farmland prices to decrease between 1 and 5% yearly over the next five years.
Compared to recent history, most respondents expect more muted farmland price increases over the next five years.
Chances of a 1980s Style Farmland Price Decline
Given large recent increases in farmland price in recent years, some concern exists that farmland price may decline dramatically similar to the decline that occurred during the 1980s. Respondents were asked what the chances were of a 1980s style decrease in farmland prices over the five years. Responses are:
39% do not believe that a 1980s style decline would happen in the next 5-years,
44% indicate that the chances of a 1980s style decline were between 0 and 10%, and
17% indicate that the chances of 1980s style decline were between 10 and 50%.
Overall, most respondents do not believe the chances are high of a 1980s price decline.
As compared to increases in the last five years, Illinois Society members are expecting more stable farmland prices over the next twelve months and five years. Overall, most respondents do not foresee a large decrease in farmland prices.
Responses are consistent with more slowly growing land prices. The large increases since 2006 likely are not a normal occurrences. Increases nearer historical averages are more likely.