February milk production up 1.1%

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February 2014 milk production in the 23 major dairy states totaled 14.92 billion lbs., up 1.4% from February 2013, according to USDA’s monthly Milk Production report. Nationally, production was estimated at 15.94 billion lbs., up 1.1% from the year before.

Market analysts characterized USDA’s estimates as mostly neutral compared to pre-report expectations.

February 2014 cow numbers in the 23 states, at 8.51 million head, were down 1,000 head from January, but 13,000 head more than a year ago. Monthly output per cow averaged 1,753 lbs., up 21 lbs. from a year earlier.

Nationally, cow numbers were estimated at 9.21 million, unchanged from January 2014, but 12,000 less than February 2013. Output per cow was put at 1,730 lbs., also up 21 lbs. from a year earlier.

One notable change to the list: South Dakota was added to the list of 23 major dairy states, replacing Missouri.

Individual states showed virtually no changes in cow numbers in the past month. Looking at year-ago numbers, Idaho cow numbers were down 11,000; with Minnesota and Ohio each down 5,000 head.

Compared to a year earlier, dow numbers were up by 5,000 each in Colorado, Kansas, New York and Texas; and up 4,000 each in Indiana, Utah and Washington.

FCStones’ Dave Kurzawski said the report was mostly neutral to pre-report estimates, with perhaps a slightly bearish lean. While milk per cow was right in line with expectations, cow numbers were slightly below expectations, despite a revision higher in the January number.

“We could construe this as slightly bearish due to the revisions, and strong growth despite relatively poor weather in the upper Midwest; futures look to be just slightly softer since the report was released.”

The state-by-state breakdown continued the recent trend of strong West Coast production, while the Upper Midwest and East Coast suffered due to the continued harsh winter weather, Kurzawski said. Largest declines in milk production was seen in Ohio, -3.7%; Illinois, -3.3%; Iowa, -2.8%; Minnesota, -2.3%; and Wisconsin, -2.0%. New Mexico also suffered, -1.4%, as milk per cow slipped likely due to water issues.

In contrast, California was up 5.3% for February, as they continue to make up for the lack of milk in the Upper Midwest. Colorado was +6.0%; Utah, +4.0%; Kansas, +3.6%; Oregon, +3.1%; Texas, +3.2%; and Washington, +3.1%. Idaho milk production was +2.6% year-over-year.

 

FEBRUARY 2013-2014 MILK PRODUCTION

 

 

 

 

 

MILK COWS

 

 

MILK PER COW

TOTAL MILK

 

 

(1,000 head)

 

(LBS. PER MONTH)

(MILLION LBS.)

 

 

Change from

Change from

Change from

Change from

State

Feb. 2014

Jan. 2014

Feb. 2013

Feb. 2014

Feb. 2013

Feb. 2014

Feb. 2013

Arizona

192

0

2

1,965

25

377

2.2

California

1,781

0

1

1,910

95

3,402

5.3

Colorado

140

0

5

1,910

45

267

6.0

Florida

123

0

1

1,710

40

210

2.9

Idaho

566

0

-11

1,820

80

1,030

2.6

Illinois

96

0

-1

1,550

-40

149

-3.2

Indiana

178

0

4

1,705

-5

303

1.7

Iowa

205

0

-3

1,725

-25

354

-2.7

Kansas

137

0

5

1,700

-5

233

3.6

Michigan

381

0

3

1,880

0

716

0.7

Minnesota

460

0

-5

1,545

-20

711

-2.3

New Mexico

323

0

1

1,950

-35

630

-1.4

New York

615

0

5

1,685

-10

1,036

0.2

Ohio

266

-1

-5

1,560

-30

415

-3.7

Oregon

124

0

1

1,590

35

197

3.1

Pennsylvania

531

0

-3

1,565

5

831

-0.2

South Dakota

95

0

3

1,640

-25

156

1.5

Texas

440

0

5

1,775

35

781

3.2

Utah

95

0

4

1,650

-10

157

4.0

Vermont

132

0

-2

1,545

40

204

1.0

Virginia

93

0

-1

1,500

40

140

2.2

Washington

268

0

4

1,855

30

497

3.1

Wisconsin

1,270

0

0

1,670

-35

2,121

-2.0

23-State

8,511

-1

13

1,753

21

14,917

1.4

U.S.

9,211

0

-12

1,730

21

15,935

1.1



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Ron    
OH  |  March, 20, 2014 at 09:15 AM

I wish so=called dairy analysts would od proper analysis of the reports. Kurzawski says the report was bearish because of the revisions. What he is missing is that because of swapping out Missouri for SD, which has more cows and more production than MO, the numbers would be higher. But that is not bearish. While Natzke mentions the 23 state Feb 2014 cow number was higher than Feb 2013, he fails to mention that the entire US is down 12,000 cows from a year ago. The 23 state report added a growing state, SD, and dropped a state that had declining cow numbers, MO. And of course there is USDA, whose cow number calculation is suspect. For example, CDFA said CA lost 45,000 cows last year. USDA says CA gained 1,000 cows last year. CDFA, using dairy license information says CA lost 67 herds, USDA said it lost 90 herds. Did the other herds in CA expand so that the cow numbers stayed the same according to USDA? I doubt that. But that is what they are saying.


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