Projected feed grain supplies and corn production to set record

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U.S. feed grain production for 2014/15 is projected at 368.4 million metric tons, down less than a million from 2013/14 when delayed plantings and midsummer dryness resulted in below trend yields, particularly in the Western Corn Belt.  This season, corn yields are expected to return to trend levels, but total harvested feed grain acreage is forecast 4.5 percent lower.  Production forecasts are smaller for sorghum and barley crops and larger for corn and oats.  Yields, at 3.93 tons per acre, are projected up 4.5 percent over last year.  Projected plantings are based on USDA’s March 31, 2014, Prospective Plantings report.  Harvested area is projected down for corn, sorghum, and barley but up slightly for oats.  Total feed grain supplies are up nearly 2 percent from 2013/14 to a record 403.3 million tons, supported by increased beginning stocks of corn.  

Forecast U.S. corn production, at 13,935 million bushels, would exceed last season’s record production by just 10 million bushels.  Although projected planted acres are lower than those in the past 3 years, and harvested acres are lower than in the previous 2, the current acreage forecast combined with trend yields produces a massive crop.  The projected 2014/15 corn yield is 165.3 bushels per acre, compared with 158.8 bushels in 2013/14.

The supply forecast of higher production, combined with beginning stocks of 1,146 million bushels and imports of 30 million, provides corn supplies of 15,111 million in 2014/15, 330 million greater than in 2013/14.   

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