Feed grain production prospects up in 2011/12

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U.S. feed grain production for 2011/12 is projected at 356 million metric tons, up from 330 million in 2010/11. This year-to-year increase stems from a larger projected acreage and yield for corn with only small area increases for sorghum and barley and a decline for oats. Production is expected lower for sorghum, barley, and oats.

For the four feed grains combined, planted area is up 4 million acres in 2011/12. Planted area is based on producer intentions reported in the March 31 Prospective Plantings. Projected harvested area is based on historical relationships to planted acreage, and yields are based on trend models, except for corn which takes into consideration delayed plantings in some key States (for more complete descriptions, see the following sections for each commodity).

Beginning feed grain stocks are projected at 22.3 million tons in 2011/12, less than half the previous year’s carry-in. Total 2011/12 feed grain supply is projected at 380.7 million tons, about the same as in 2010/11.

Total feed grain use is expected to decline marginally in 2011/12, but some of the components are expected to experience year-to-year changes. Total food, seed, and industrial (FSI) use is projected at 171.0 million tons in 2011/12, up 1.4 million from 2010/11. Ethanol production is expected to increase by only 1.3 million tons in 2011/12, following annual average increases of 17.5 million tons over the last 5 years. Feed and residual use is expected to decline by 2.1 million tons in 2011/12 to 134.4 million. Record-high corn prices and plentiful supplies of distillers’ grains are expected to encourage feeders to reduce feed grain use. U.S. exports are expected to decrease from 52.0 million tons in 2010/11 to 49.3 million in 2011/12. Ending feed grain stocks are projected to increase by 3.7 million tons from the 22.3 million projected in 2010/11. Feed grain prices are expected to be record high.



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