Global coarse grain production prospects reduced

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World coarse grain production in 2011/12 is projected at 1,142.2 million tons, down 3.4 million this month mostly due to reduced prospects in Argentina. Global corn production is forecast down 4.0 million tons to 864.1 million, and sorghum is reduced 0.1 million tons to 60.6 million, but barley prospects are increased 0.6 million tons to 134.0 million and oats are up 0.1 million tons to 23.2 million.

In Argentina, crop damage was confirmed for corn and sorghum. While crucial rains and milder temperatures in the latter half of January allowed filling corn and sorghum to recoup some loses, rainfall for the month was below normal in most of the key growing areas, and temperatures averaged above normal. Forecast corn harvested area is reduced 0.2 million hectares to 3.6 million as corn with poor pollination is expected to be harvested for silage instead for grain. The projected yield in Argentina is reduced 11 percent this month to 6.1 tons per hectare, as damage done by the hot, dry conditions in December has been confirmed, as were additional yield loses caused by hot and dry weather in early January. Sorghum is more drought tolerant than corn, but the crop has experienced serious stress. Argentine sorghum yields are forecast down 8 percent this month to 4.3 tons per hectare, reducing production 0.3 million tons to 4.4 million tons. The barley harvest in Argentina was completed in mostly favorably dry conditions, and area harvested for grain and yields are reportedly higher than expected earlier, boosting production 0.7 million tons to 4.0 million.

While the drought in South America during December and January extended into Southern Brazil, damaging production prospects for first-crop corn, favorable conditions for the second crop are offsetting, leaving total projected corn production unchanged this month. In Paraguay, however, corn production losses will not be offset, and 2011/12 area and yield prospects are reduced this month, cutting production 0.35 million tons to 1.65 million.

In Australia, ample summer rains in Queensland and Northern New South Wales improved sorghum yield prospects, boosting 2011/12 production 0.2 million tons to 2.6 million. The Philippines reported increased corn plantings, increasing projected production 0.14 million tons to 7.14 million.

EU 2011/12 corn production is increased 0.2 million tons to 64.5 million, based on higher yields reported for Italy. Kazakhstan reported 2011/12 harvest results, generally trimming coarse grain area but increasing yields. Barley production is reduced 0.1 million tons to 2.6 million, and rye is reduced, but these reductions are more than offset by increases for oats, up 0.1 million tons to 0.3 million, and small increases for corn and millet.

Changes to the previous year’s coarse grains supply and demand balances are mostly offsetting, but boost world 2011/12 beginning stocks 0.3 million tons this month to 166.2 million. World corn beginning stocks are up 0.8 million tons to 128.8 million, mostly due to a 0.5-million-ton increase for South Africa caused by reduced exports and increased imports estimated for 2010/11. Increased 2010/11 corn imports boost Brazil’s 2011/12 beginning stocks 0.3 million tons, with other changes smaller and mostly offsetting.



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