World coarse grain supplies for 2012/13 are projected to reach 1,283.6 million tons, up 7.0 million tons this month, mostly due to a record corn crop reported for China. Foreign corn production is forecast up 9.4 million tons to 576.7 million, but this is partly offset by reductions for foreign barley, down 0.7 million to 125.3 million; foreign oats, cut 0.5 million to 19.7 million; and foreign sorghum, trimmed 0.3 million to 52.8 million. Expected 2012/13 production for millet, mixed grain, and rye are virtually unchanged this month.
China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) published its first estimate of corn production at a record 208.1 million tons, and USDA adopted a slightly rounded version at 208.0 million, as some future revisions can be expected as the NBS gets additional details. This is up 8.0 million tons from the previous month’s forecast. Economic information, weather data, and satellite imagery support the large increase. NBS reported corn harvested area of a record 34.95 million hectares in 2012/13, a 4 percent-increase from the previous year. The price of corn at planting time was more attractive than that of alternative crops, especially soybeans or cotton. Favorable growing conditions limited losses in the harvested-to-planted ratio in most areas. Some corn was lodged early in September in the eastern part of the northeastern corn belt by Typhoon Bolaven, but much of the corn was still reportedly harvested. Area expansion has been strongest in the two northernmost provinces, Heilongjiang and Inner Mongolia, with the increased availability of short-season corn varieties. Warmer-than-normal temperatures and above-normal precipitation provided the moisture and growing degree days needed by corn in these provinces. Satellite imagery confirms the favorable condition of the corn crop throughout the North China Plain and Northeast. China’s 2012/13 corn crop exceeds the previous year’s record by 8 percent.
Statistics Canada recently published a record estimate for the 2012/13 corn crop, raising production 1.5 million tons from USDA’s previous forecast to 13.1 million tons. A record area harvested is combined with the second best yield, at 9.2 tons per hectare, up 11 percent this month. Corn area expanded notably in Quebec where this season’s warm temperatures were favorable.
Russia’s corn production is increased 1.0 million tons to a record 8.5 million based on harvest reports that indicate record yields. Both the Central District and North Caucasus report excellent yields, with some producers still harvesting in the North Caucasus.