Higher corn exports raise price and cut ending stocks outlooks

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U.S. feed grain supplies for 2013/14 is unchanged this month, with the exception of a 5-million-bushel reduction to projected barley imports.

Feed and residual use for the four feed grains plus wheat converted to a September-August marketing year is forecast lower this month on a 0.8-million-ton reduction in wheat and a small reduction in barley feed and residual use. Grain consuming animal units is forecast at 91.38 million units, 0.61 higher than the December forecast of 90.77 million and 0.36 lower than the 2012/13 forecast. Inventories of layers and broilers increased from the previous month, and all cattle and calve and turkey inventories are forecast lower. The 2014 forecast of total red meat and poultry production is lowered from last month as higher beef production is more than offset by lower pork, broiler, and turkey production.

Projected 2013/14 feed and residual use per animal unit is 1.56 tons this month, down from 1.58 tons per unit in January. Barley feed and residual use is reduced 5 million bushels.

There are no changes in food, seed, and industrial (FSI) use.

Corn export forecast boosted
Forecast U.S. corn exports for 2013/14 are raised 150 million bushels from last month, as attractive prices, strong international demand, and prospects for lower shipments from major competitors provide the United States with export opportunities. Corn ending stocks are projected at 1,481 million bushels, 150 million below last month’s projection but still well above last year’s carryout of 821 million. The stocks-to-use ratio is projected at 11.1, compared with 12.4 last month and 7.4 a year earlier.

The midpoint of the projected range for corn prices received by producers is raised 10 cents to $4.50 per bushel as higher projected use reduces expected carryout. Both the low and high end of the range of the forecast price is raised 10 cents, to $4.20 and $4.80 per bushel, respectively.



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