Increased foreign coarse grain production partly offsets U.S. drop

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World coarse grain production in 2011/12 is projected at 1,131.2 million tons, down 5.1 million this month, but foreign production is up 5.4 million tons to 802.9 million. Most of the large changes in 2011/12 production this month are for corn. Global millet production is up 0.4 million with increased production for Russia and Ukraine, while barley is up 0.2 million with increases for Ukraine and the EU more than offsetting a 0.7-million-ton drop for Morocco caused by excessive rains during the harvest. World oats and rye production are nearly unchanged this month, with foreign sorghum and mixed grain production unchanged.

Foreign corn production for 2011/12 is up 4.8 million tons this month as increases for Brazil, Argentina, Ukraine, and the EU more than offset reductions for Egypt and Canada. Brazil’s corn production in 2011/12 is projected to reach a record 61.0 million tons, up 4.0 million. The Brazilian Government published its final estimate of 2010/11 corn production at 57.5 million tons, up 2.0 million from last month’s USDA forecast, with increased area and production for the second crop. Despite the late corn planting and early cutoff of rains in Mato Grosso, the 7-percent area expansion for all of Brazil in 2010/11 supported record corn production. Current strong corn prices compared to soybean prices are expected to support corn area expansion for the first-crop 2011/12 corn just now being planted in Southern Brazil, while the high prices of both corn and soybeans are expected to encourage expanded area in the Center-West for double-cropped soybeans and corn. Total corn area in 2011/12 is projected up 5 percent to 14.5 million acres, supporting another record corn crop.

The strong prices for corn compared to soybeans are also expected to support corn area in Argentina, forecast up 12.5 percent from a year earlier. Increased area is boosting projected 2011/12 corn production 1.5 million tons this month to a record 27.5 million tons.

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Corn production prospects for Ukraine are increased 1.5 million tons to 18.0 million based on early harvest reports and the good condition of the crop. Favorable temperature and rainfall during the season in most areas is confirmed by satellite imagery. Good corn yield prospects boost projected EU 2011/12 corn production 1.0 million tons this month to 61.0 million. Improved crop prospects are reported for Romania, France, Hungary, Poland, and Bulgaria.

Corn production prospects are reduced dramatically this month for Egypt, down 2.1 million tons to 3.8 million. The government is not effectively limiting access to irrigation water for rice, and with rice more profitable than corn, Egyptian producers are planting rice in place of corn. Egyptian corn area is projected to drop 39 percent to 0.52 million hectacres in 2011/12, the lowest in the USDA database back to 1960, and production is expected to be the smallest since 1985/86.

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Canada’s corn yields are projected lower this month as the growing season has been less than ideal, with Ontario suffering from some of the same problems as neighboring Ohio. Canada’s 2011/12 average corn yield is forecast down 14 percent from the previous year’s record.

Corn production prospects for the Philippines are also down slightly (0.1 million tons) due to reduced area prospects.



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