June 1 stocks estimate eases stocks situation

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The Grain Stocks report, issued by USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service on June 30, 2011, showed higher-than-expected June 1 corn stocks indicating a lower-than-expected March-May disappearance during 2010/11. This month’s changes to 2010/11 corn usage raise carryin for the 2011/12 crop year 150 million bushels over last month’s projection, but beginning stocks remain down dramatically, at 52 percent of the 2010/11 estimate. June 1 stocks for sorghum raise indicated March-May disappearance, lowering expected ending stocks for 2010/11. June 1 stock estimates reduce barley 2010/11 ending stocks 3 million bushels and raise oats 2010/11 ending stocks 2 million bushels. Ending stocks for 2010/11 are down year to year for all four of the feed grains.

Corn ending stocks for 2011/12 are raised 175 million bushels from last month’s projection based on higher production and carryin. Sorghum, barley, and oats ending stocks are down 5, 6, and 8 million bushels, respectively, as projected supplies tighten this month.

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There is no change this month in the 2011/12 corn import projection of 20 million bushels. Estimated imports of corn for 2010/11 are raised 5 million bushels to 30 million bushels on continued strong shipments from Canada.

Corn feed and residual use for 2011/12 is increased 50 million bushels as lower prices encourage feeding. The 2010/11 feed and residual use forecast is lowered 150 million bushels based on lower-than-expected March-May disappearance as indicated by the June 1 stocks. Continuing high prices are expected to limit corn use for feed with increased supplies of soft red winter wheat priced to substitute for corn in livestock feed this summer. June-August corn feed and residual use, however, is expected to be up from last year as delayed planting in eastern and southern portions of the Corn Belt limit early availability of new-crop corn. Feed and residual use in the second half of the marketing year is estimated at 1,364 million bushels, or only 27 percent of the 5,000 million bushels projected for the year. This would be lower than any year since at least 1975, both in absolute and percentage terms.

Sorghum feed and residual for 2011/12 is projected 10 million bushels lower at 80 million bushels as reduced plantings lower supplies especially in Texas and Kansas where drought is adversely affecting this year’s crop. For 2010/11, sorghum feed and residual use are increased 5 million bushels based on indications from the June 1 stocks. The July projection for barley feed and residual use is unchanged for 2011/12 and increased 3 million for 2010/11, reflecting the lower ending stocks estimate. For oats, the July 2011/12 projection for feed and residual use is lowered 10 million bushels, reflecting lower production. For 2010/11, ending stocks are estimated 2 million bushels lower, reflecting the June 1 stocks.

Grain consuming animal units (GCAUs) are increased for July. For 2011/12, higher inventory numbers for cattle on feed and hogs boosted GCAUs from 94.2 to 94.3. For 2010/11, GCAUs increased from 92.7 to 92.9 on higher poultry inventory.



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