Lower forecast milk supply in 2013 helps keep prices firm

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According to Tuesday's Livestock, Dairy and Poultry report, milk production for the current year was reduced fractionally in September from the August forecast to 199.9 billion pounds. The production forecast for 2013 was unchanged from August at 198.9 billion pounds. Dairy cow number forecasts for both 2012 and 2013 remain unchanged from August at 9,215- and 9,110- thousand head, respectively.

The dairy cow slaughter rate and the prices of replacement heifers suggest a continued gradual decline in the dairy herd through 2013. The reduced milk production forecast for 2012 is based on lower forecast milk per cow of 21,690 pounds. Lower milk per cow is expected in the third and fourth quarters of this year due to high summer temperatures that likely adversely affected milk yields as well as tight alfalfa supplies. Yield per cow is forecast at 21,830 pounds for 2013, unchanged from August’s forecast. The slight yield increase next year is largely based on expected larger forage supplies.

The 2012/13 price forecast for corn was lowered from August’s projection to $7.20- $8.60 per bushel. Despite a slightly lowered corn yield forecast from August, higher estimated carryin stocks and a lowered export forecast are resulting in larger domestic supply estimates than were made earlier.

The soybean meal price was increased for 2012/13 to $485-$515 per ton. This is due to a lower soybean crush forecast for 2012/13 as soybean ending stocks are projected to reach a 9-year low. The August Agricultural Prices report places the preliminary August price for alfalfa hay at $203 per ton, up slightly from last month and up from August 2011. Higher milk prices in 2013 will help offset higher feed prices.

Milk equivalent imports on a fats basis are unchanged from August at 3.7 billion pounds for 2012 and 3.6 billion pounds in 2013. Imports on a skims-solids basis were raised from August estimates to 5.7 billion pounds for 2012 and to 5.0 billion pounds in 2013. Strong imports of casein to date are the basis for the import boost. The higher pace of casein imports is expected to continue into 2013.

Export forecasts remain unchanged from August. Current-year exports are forecast at 9.8 billion pounds, fats basis, and 33.4 billion pounds, skims-solids basis. For next year, milk equivalent exports are forecast at 8.9 billion pounds on a fats basis and 32.5 billion pounds on a skims-solids basis. U.S. nonfat dry milk (NDM) exports are ahead of 2011, but slowed sharply in July.

Seasonally rising production and exports from Australia and New Zealand are expected to offer increased competition to U.S. exporters for the remainder of the year, dampening prospects of increasing export forecasts. On a fats basis, butter exports have lagged 2011 yearto- date, but cheese exports have been well ahead of 2011, offsetting butter.

Price forecasts were raised in the September forecast. Demand remains firm, while production is likely to decline in coming months. Cheese prices were raised from August to $1.650-$1.670 per pound this year and are unchanged for 2013 at $1.640- $1.740 per pound. Butter prices were raised for 2012 to $1.565-$1.605 per pound but lowered slightly for next year to $1.510-$1.640 per pound.

Weaker demand for butter will lead to higher fats basis stocks and softening prices next year. NDM prices are expected to be higher in 2012 at $1.275-$1.295 per pound and $1.350-$1.420 per pound next year, unchanged from August. Similarly, whey prices were raised to 56.5-58.5 cents per pound for the current year and unchanged from August for 2013 at 57.0-60.0 cents per pound.

Milk prices reflect the pricing in the underlying products.

The Class III price is forecast higher than August for 2012 at $16.75-$16.95 per cwt and unchanged for 2013 at $16.70-$17.70 per cwt. The Class IV price is projected higher at $15.45- $15.75 this year and is lowered from August to $15.85-$16.95 per cwt next year. The lower 2013 price reflects the softer butter prices next year. The all milk price was raised from August to $17.80-$18.00 per cwt and raised for 2013 to $17.85- $18.85 per cwt.



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