March cheese output up slightly; butter production down

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USDA released its monthly Dairy Products report on May 1, summarizing March and year-to-date (YTD) 2014 production estimates.

FCStone termed the report slightly bullish for butter, with questions regarding where excess cream is going; and slightly bullish for cheese. However, powder (nonfat dry milk) estimates were more bearish; and dry whey numbers were seen as slightly bearish, with stocks building in a typical seasonal pattern.

HighGround Dairy viewed the report as supportive for cheese and butter, while somewhat bearish for NFDM prices. As milk production continues to lag in key Upper Midwest states, cheddar cheese production has remained below last year for the fifth consecutive month. Butter production took a major hit, with both the lowest amount produced in March since 2010, and the sharpest year-over-year percentage decline in any month since November 2009. The somewhat bearish outlook for NFDM prices is due to recent inventory growth. They add, however, that International demand is more likely on “holiday” and not on permanent leave

 

On to the numbers

Total cheese output (excluding cottage cheese) was 964 million lbs. in March 2014, 1.0% more March 2013. Y-T-D production stands at 2.77 billion lbs., up about 1.2% from the same period a year ago.

Cheddar cheese production totaled 277 million lbs., down 1.4% from March 2013. Y-T-D production is 1.10 billion lbs., down 0.8% from the same period a year ago. Mozzarella output, at 336 million lbs., is up 4.0% from March 2013. Y-T-D production is 968 million lbs., up 6.0%

Butter production was 165 million lbs., 9.0% less than March 2013. Y-T-D production stands at 511 million lbs., down about 5.8% from the same period a year ago.

Nonfat dry milk (human consumption) estimated at 163 million lbs., up 11.0% from the same month a year earlier. Y-T-D production was estimated at 442 million lbs., up 3.5% from the same period in 2013.

Dry whey production estimated at 66 million lbs., down 25% from the same month a year earlier. Y-T-D production was estimated at 198 million lbs., down 24% from the same period in 2013.

 

March 2014 Dairy Products

 

 

 

 

March

Change from

Y-T-D

Change from

 

2014

March 2013

2014

2013

 

(1,000 lbs.)

%

(1,000 lbs.)

%

Total cheese

963,892

1.0

2,767,789

1.2

American types

379,274

-1.4

1,100,393

-0.8

Cheddar

277,278

-2.4

803,196

-1.7

Italian types

427,380

3.5

1,221,830

4.1

Mozzarella

335,862

4.0

968,134

6.0

 

 

 

 

 

Butter

165,013

-9.0

511,373

-5.8

 

 

 

 

 

Dry whey, total

65,816

-24.9

197,918

-23.5

 

 

 

 

 

Nonfat dry milk, human

162,649

11.0

442,066

3.5

Skim milk powder, total

42,620

-10.4

136,834

-1.3

Source: USDA

 

 

 

 

 

 



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