New tool for evaluating weather forecast uncertainty

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EarthRisk Technologies, a pioneer in the research, analysis and visualization of extreme temperatures and weather patterns, released a new graphical tool for quantifying the likelihood of extreme temperature events. EarthRisk's newest product, ForecastRisk, combines the output of its innovative TempRisk Forecast Model with conventional ensemble output from numerical weather prediction models. Specifically, ForecastRisk displays the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and the Global Forecast System (GFS) in the same anomaly space with HeatRisk and ColdRisk Scores.

Available for all U.S. regions, ForecastRisk captures the inherent uncertainty associated with weather forecasts by showing the spread in numerical ensemble members in comparison with TempRisk's statistical output.

"Our customers need to make informed decisions about the weather very quickly. We specifically developed ForecastRisk to mirror how our users think about and intuitively compare the various data models available to them," says EarthRisk CEO John Plavan. "Now we've put that data into a single graphical representation, making the process of assessing weather forecast uncertainty much faster, more concrete and repeatable."

By combining TempRisk forecast data and multi-model ensemble forecasts in an insightful way, ForecastRisk offers weather analysts and commodity traders an at-a-glance tool for quickly and easily quantifying model consensus, directional risk and confidence.

"Our beta users tell us that ForecastRisk is literally a game-changer for them," adds Plavan. "The new visualization converts a complex thought process into an instantly digestible format that supports better decisions."

"Commodities trading requires efficient display of quantitative data for fast uptake during key decision points within the trading day," says Adam O'Shay, president and head of trading at Leeward Pointe Capital. "ForecastRisk aggregates vital demand-level data-pieces into an easily digestible format and is a unique decision-analytic that I use daily and is something I cannot find elsewhere in the commodities space."

ForecastRisk is included with Pro and Standard TempRisk subscriptions and is also available as a stand-alone product. It is emailed every business day in a region-specific PDF format.



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