As column readers are aware, history tells us that multi-year periods of exceptionally high crop prices are usually followed by much longer periods of exceptionally low crop prices. If that is the case, Secretaries of Agriculture in future years may be explaining dramatic drops in the value of agricultural exports.
Of course, the similarity of trends in export values and prices for other categories of agricultural exports—especially the growing volume of highly processed exports—are not universally as strong as the trends in crop export value and crop price.
Still, it seems most likely that over the period of the next farm bill, the overall trend in the value of agricultural exports will point in the same direction as the overall trend in crop prices.
Source: Daryll E. Ray and Harwood D. Schaffer, Agricultural Policy Analysis Center, University of Tennessee