Prospective plantings: Soybeans up; corn down; hay unchanged

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USDA released the much-anticipated 2014 Prospective Plantings report on March 31. As expected, some corn acreage will be diverted to soybeans, with hay acreage expected to increase only slightly (see table below).

Corn planted area for all purposes in 2014 is estimated at 91.7 million acres, down 4% from last year and down 6% from 2012. If realized, this will represent the lowest planted acreage in the United States since 2010; however, this will represent the fifth largest corn acreage in the United States since 1944.

Colorado, Idaho, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Massachusetts and Utah are expected to increase planted acreage from last year. If realized, planted acres in Idaho would be a record high.

Expected returns for corn are anticipated to be lower in 2014 compared with recent years.

Soybean planted area for 2014 is estimated at a record high 81.5 million acres, up 6% from last year. Compared with last year, planted acreage intentions are up or unchanged across all states, with the exception of Missouri and Oklahoma.

The largest increase is expected in North Dakota, where farmers intend to plant a record high 5.65 million acres, an increase of 1 million acres from 2013. Compared with last year, large increases in planted area are also expected in Minnesota and Nebraska. If realized, the planted area in Nebraska, New York, Pennsylvania, South Dakota and Wisconsin will also be the largest on record.

Producers intend to harvest 58.3 million acres of all hay in 2014, up slightly from 2013. Hay acreage is expected to decrease across the northern and central Great Plains and the Great Lakes regions. Record high acreage is expected in Florida, Oklahoma, and Texas. Record low acreage is expected in Iowa, Michigan, Nebraska, and New Hampshire.

Also affecting potential cottonseed supply for dairy producers, all cotton planted area for 2014 is expected to total 11.1 million acres, 7% above last year.

 

Grain stocks: corn up; soybeans down

In a separate Grain Stocks report, USDA estimated corn stocks in all positions on March 1, 2014 totaled 7.01 billion bushels, up 30% from March 1, 2013. Of the total stocks, 3.86 billion bushels are stored on farms, up 45% from a year earlier. Off-farm stocks, at 3.15 billion bushels, are up 15% from a year ago. The December 2013–February 2014 indicated disappearance is 3.45 billion bushels, compared with 2.63 billion bushels during the same period last year.

Soybeans stored in all positions on March 1, 2014 totaled 992 million bushels, down 1% from March 1, 2013. Soybean stocks stored on farms are estimated at 382 million bushels, down 16% from a year ago. Off-farm stocks, at 610 million bushels, are up 13% from last March. Indicated disappearance for the December 2013–February 2014 quarter totaled 1.16 billion bushels, up 20% from the same period a year earlier.

 

2014 Prospective Plantings

 

 

 

 

 

 

Corn

Compared to

Soybeans

Compared to

All hay

Compared to

 

1,000 acres

2013 (%)

1,000 acres

2013 (%)

1,000 acres

2013 (%)

Alabama

290

91

500

115

750

95

Arizona

70

82

 

 

320

112

Arkansas

600

68

3,350

103

1,300

97

California

430

72

 

 

1,450

101

Colorado

1,230

101

 

 

1,300

99

Connecticut

27

100

 

 

60

128

Delaware

175

97

185

112

16

89

Florida

80

70

38

119

320

107

Georgia

370

73

240

104

540

93

Idaho

380

109

 

 

1,490

101

Illinois

11,900

99

9,500

101

630

95

Indiana

5,800

97

5,500

106

630

98

Iowa

14,000

103

9,600

103

1,050

90

Kansas

4,400

102

3,900

108

2,650

96

Kentucky

1,500

98

1,700

103

2,600

100

Louisiana

480

71

1,350

121

360

90

Maine

32

103

 

 

140

104

Maryland

460

96

500

104

230

102

Massachusetts

18

113

 

 

73

87

Michigan

2,600

100

2,100

111

920

98

Minnesota

8,600

100

7,400

110

1,800

95

Mississippi

580

67

2,150

107

710

99

Missouri

3,300

99

5,500

98

4,150

102

Montana

120

100

 

 

2,700

96

Nebraska

9,400

94

5,400

113

2,450

98

Nevada

5

71

 

 

300

87

New Hampshire

13

93

 

 

45

90

New Jersey

90

100

91

102

105

108

New Mexico

110

92

 

 

270

117

New York

1,180

98

330

118

1,500

105

North Carolina

850

91

1,600

110

900

105

North Dakota

2,950

77

5,650

122

2,600

99

Ohio

3,700

95

4,700

106

1,080

101

Oklahoma

300

81

340

99

3,300

105

Oregon

80

100

590

109

1,100

108

Pennsylvania

1,420

96

 

 

1,380

110

Rhode Island

2

100

 

 

8

100

South Carolina

320

91

360

113

300

103

South Dakota

5,800

94

4,800

104

3,000

98

Tennessee

830

93

1,600

103

1,950

102

Texas

2,100

89

145

138

5,700

101

Utah

92

111

 

 

730

101

Vermont

85

92

 

 

180

100

Virginia

500

98

600

100

1,250

101

Washington

190

100

 

 

750

99

West Virginia

47

89

24

109

580

98

Wisconsin

4,100

100

1,750

111

1,600

100

Wyoming

85

85

 

 

1,000

101

United States

91,691

96

81,493

106

58,267

100

USDA 2014 Prospective Plantings report, March 31, 2014

 

 

 


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