Record feed grain production projected for 2012/13

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U.S. feed grain production for 2012/13 is projected at 390 million metric tons, up from 324 million in 2011/12. An anticipated large corn crop augmented by recovering production for sorghum, barley, and oats boosts the production outlook. Acreage is projected higher for the four feed grains, and yields are projected up for all but barley.

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For the four feed grains combined, U.S. planted area is up 5.6 million acres. Planted area is based on producer intentions reported in the March 30 Prospective Plantings. Projected harvested area is based on historical relationships to planted acreage, and yields are based on trend models, except for corn, which takes into account early May planting progress. Harvested area is projected at 98.3 million acres, up from 91.1 million last season.

Beginning feed grain stocks are projected at 24.2 million tons in 2012/13, the lowest since 1996/97. Total 2012/13 feed grain supply is projected at a record high 416 million tons.

Total U.S. feed grain use is expected to increase by 30.9 million tons to 365 million tons in 2012/13 due to higher feed and residual use and exports. Year-to-year feed and residual use is projected up 23 million tons, and exports are projected 7 million tons higher. Food, seed, and industrial (FSI) use is up slightly. There is no change in feed grains used for fuel. Ethanol production is steady as the slowly increasing share of ethanol in gasoline is offset by stagnant gasoline consumption. Increasing U.S. poultry and hog inventories and lower prices are expected to boost demand for feed.

The residual component of feed and residual is expected to be much larger in 2012/13 as production expands sharply. Ending feed grain stocks are projected to advance 27 million tons year-to-year from 2011/12. Average farm price in 2012/13 is expected to decrease 24 percent from the 2011/12 record high levels, as supplies grow.



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