Revised yields diminish feed grain production prospects

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The November forecast for 2011/12 U.S. feed grain production is 323.1 million tons, down from last month’s forecast of 326.2 million. The month-to-month decrease results from lower forecast corn production. Upward revisions for sorghum and barley and a slight decrease for oats, resulting from revised yields, are minimal. The feed grain supply change reflects adjustments in production as imports were steady for the four individual feed grains.

Domestic 2011/12 feed grain utilization is projected at 290.4 million tons, down from 292.7 million last month and 7.2 million below last season. Feed and residual is lowered 2.5 million tons from last month due to tighter grain supplies and reduced poultry production prospects. Food, seed, and industrial use (FSI) is raised 0.3 million tons to 169.4 million due to higher expected use of sorghum for ethanol production. Sorghum export prospects slip 0.3 million tons on the slow pace of sales and shipments to data. Forecast feed grain ending stocks are lowered 0.5 million tons as lower supplies are mostly offset by a decline in expected use. Price forecasts are unchanged for corn and sorghum but lowered for barley, with the projected ranges for both barley and oats narrowed.

Minor changes are made to the 2010/11 feed grains balance sheet reflecting updated data on FSI use and feed grain trade. Corn sweetener, starch, and ethanol production are all raised and imports are increased slightly while feed and residual use and exports slipped. Ending stocks estimates are unchanged.



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