U.S. 2011/12 corn export prospects boosted, 2010/11 trimmed

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Increased U.S. corn supplies and more competitive prices are supporting U.S. corn export prospects for 2011/12. This month, trade year (October-September) exports are increased 2.0 million tons to 48.0 million while local marketing year (September-August) exports are projected up 100 million bushels to 1.9 billion. World corn trade is boosted 1.2 million tons to 93.7 million as lower corn prices encourage additional imports, especially by China. Competing corn export prospects are reduced 0.8 million tons this month mostly due to tight supplies in a few minor exporting countries.

Canada’s corn export prospects are cut 0.5 million tons to 0.5 million because of reduced supplies. Canada’s 2011/12 corn beginning stocks prospects are reduced 0.5 million to 1.1 million due to strong corn use for ethanol in 2010/11. Canada’s corn production prospects for 2011/12 are reduced 0.2 million tons to 11.3 million because not all the intended corn acres got planted.

Mexico’s 2011/12 corn exports are cut 0.2 million tons this month to 0.1 million, mostly due to reduced production for both 2010/11 and 2011/12. Russia’s corn exports are also trimmed 0.2 million tons as the planned area increase is reported to have fallen short of expectations, reducing production prospects 0.5 million tons to 5.5 million. These declines are partly offset by a small increase in export prospects for Belarus, where corn area increases are reportedly greater than expected, boosting production prospects 0.2 million tons to 1.2 million.

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China’s corn imports for 2011/12 are increased 1.5 million tons to 2.0 million. On July 7, USDA announced a sale of 0.54 million tons to China for delivery in 2011/12. Moreover, some of the unusually large corn sales to “unknown” destinations for both 2010/11 and 2011/12 are rumored to be for China.  High corn prices in China make imports attractive, and growth in pork prices and hog numbers support prospects for continued strong corn prices in China.

Algeria’s corn imports for 2011/12 are increased 0.1 million tons to 2.6 million, reflecting strong demand driven mostly by increasing poultry production. Based on recent trade data, the country’s 2010/11 corn imports are raised 0.3 million tons to 2.7 million. Similarly, Peru’s corn imports for 2011/12 are raised 0.1 million tons to 1.5 million, while 2010/11 imports are boosted 0.2 million tons to 1.7 million.

Partly offsetting is Syria’s 2011/12 corn imports, which are reduced 0.2 million to 2.0 million, while 2010/11 imports are trimmed 0.3 million tons to 1.7 million. Also, there is a 0.1-million-ton reduction in 2011/12 corn import prospects for Taiwan, to 4.6 million tons. The slow pace of corn purchases and shipments caused a reduction of 0.3 million tons to 4.3 million for 2010/11 imports.

Other changes to forecast of 2010/11 imports based on the pace of ongoing sales and shipments include: an increase of 0.3 million tons to 7.3 million for the EU, based on the pace of shipments and import licenses; a reduction of 0.1 million to 0.2 million for Russia; and an increase of 0.15 million tons to 0.75 for U.S. trade year imports (the local marketing year imports are raised 5 million bushels to 30 million) due to shipments from Canada.

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This month, U.S. corn exports for 2010/11 are reduced 0.5 million tons to 48.0 million, (trimmed 25 million bushels to 1.875 billion for the local marketing year). The pace of sales and shipments in recent weeks has fallen below expectations. Census exports for October 2010 to May 2011 reached 30.3 million tons, down 4 percent from the previous year, and June 2011 corn grain inspections were only 3.9 million tons, down 5 percent. Moreover, at the end of June, outstanding export sales for shipments in the old marketing year were 8.3 million tons, down 16 percent from a year ago. Corn export shipments during summer 2011 are no longer expected to support a year-over-year decline in exports of 4 percent as forecast last month for the local marketing year and 3 percent for the trade year.

Changes to projected 2010/11 corn exports for other countries based on the pace of shipments include a 0.1-million-ton increase for Thailand and a smaller boost for Moldova.



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