Global Petroleum and Other Liquids
EIA projects world petroleum and other liquids supply to increase by 1.3 million barrels per day (bbl/d) in both 2014 and 2015, with most of the growth coming from countries outside of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). The Americas, in particular the United States, Canada, and Brazil, will account for much of this growth. Projected world liquid fuels consumption grows by an annual average of 1.2 million bbl/d in 2014 and 1.4 million bbl/d in 2015. Countries outside the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), notably China, drive expected consumption growth. Non-OPEC supply growth contributes to an increase in global surplus crude oil production capacity from an average of 2.1 million bbl/d in 2013 to 3.9 million bbl/d in 2015.
Global Petroleum and Other Liquids Consumption
EIA estimates that global consumption grew by 1.2 million bbl/d in 2013, averaging 90.4 million bbl/d for the year. EIA expects global consumption to grow 1.2 million bbl/d in 2014 and 1.4 million bbl/d in 2015. Projected global oil-consumption-weighted real GDP, which increased by an estimated 2.3% in 2013, grows by 3.1% and 3.5% in 2014 and 2015, respectively.
Non-OECD countries as a group are expected to account for all of the consumption growth in 2014 and nearly all of the growth in 2015. China is the leading contributor to projected global consumption growth, with consumption increasing by 400,000 bbl/d in 2014 and 430,000 bbl/d in 2015. However, China's economic and oil consumption growth rates have moderated compared with rates before 2012, when annual GDP growth exceeded 9% and oil consumption growth averaged 700,000 bbl/d from 2009 through 2012.
EIA expects lower OECD consumption in 2014, led by projected consumption declines in both Japan and Europe. EIA expects Japan's oil consumption to fall by an annual average of 150,000 bbl/d in 2014 and 2015, as the country continues to increase natural gas consumption in the electricity sector and returns some nuclear power plants to service. EIA projects that OECD Europe's consumption, which fell by 60,000 bbl/d in 2013, will decline by another 60,000 bbl/d in 2014 and then remain mostly flat in 2015. U.S. liquids consumption, which increased by 400,000 bbl/d in 2013, is expected to remain flat in 2014 and then increase by 100,000 bbl/d in 2015.
EIA estimates that non-OPEC liquids production grew by 1.3 million bbl/d in 2013, averaging 54.0 million bbl/d for the year. EIA expects non-OPEC liquids production to grow by 1.8 million bbl/d in 2014 and 1.5 million bbl/d in 2015. EIA forecasts production from the United States and Canada to grow by a combined annual average of 1.3 million bbl/d in 2014 and 1.2 million bbl/d in 2015. Brazil's production is expected to increase by an annual average of 0.15 million bbl/d over the next two years, attributable to new deepwater fields. EIA estimates that Asia and Oceania's production will rise by an annual average of 0.18 million bbl/d over the forecast period, led by China.