U.S. corn export prospects for 2011/2012 reduced

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U.S. corn exports in trade year 2011/12 are projected at 45.0 million tons, down 3.0 million this month (down 150 million bushels to 1.75 billion for the local marketing year) due to tight U.S. supplies and high corn prices, increased competition from other exporters, and declining world corn trade caused by increased availability of competitively priced feed quality wheat.

World corn trade in 2011/12 is projected to reach 92.8 million tons, down 0.9 million this month. EU corn imports are reduced 1.0 million tons to 4.0 million because of increased production and feed use of wheat (EU wheat feed use is forecast up 2.0 million tons this month). South Korea, Thailand, and Vietnam have reduced corn imports forecast this month (down 0.5 million tons, 0.1 million, and 0.1 million, respectively) due to increased import prospects for feed quality wheat. Partly offsetting are increased corn imports expected for Egypt, up 0.5 million tons, and Kenya, up 0.15 million, because of reduced production prospects.

Ukraine, with increased corn production prospects, is projected to export 8.5 million tons in 2011/12, up 1.0 million this month. Argentina, with increased estimated beginning stocks, is projected to export 17.5 million tons of corn in 2011/12, up 0.5 million tons this month. Canada’s corn export prospects are increased 0.5 million tons this month to 1.0 million as the recent strong pace of sales and shipments is expected to slow, but not cease, in 2011/12. South Africa has shipped corn in recent months at a pace that indicates that port capacity and transportation infrastructure problems are not as severe as previously thought. Its corn export prospects for 2011/12 are boosted 0.3 million tons this month to 2.3 million. Croatia’s 2011/12 corn exports are trimmed 0.15 million tons to 0.1 million due to reduced production prospects.

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