click image to zoomSource: USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service, Quick Stats.Figure 1. According to the USDA's Feed Outlook, U.S. feed grain supplies for 2012/13 are projected sharply lower this month with lower production for corn on lower yields.
Extremely hot weather and drought result in a 20- bushel-per-acre decline in the projected corn yield to 146 bushels per acre reducing projected production to 13.0 billion bushels, compared with 14.8 billion bushels last month. The June Acreage report increased planted acreage relative to March intentions but harvested acreage was reduced 249,000 acres. Corn supplies for 2012/13 are projected1.8 billion bushels lower.
Forecast 2012/13 prices are increased for corn, sorghum, and barley and oats. With tighter supplies and higher price prospects, domestic corn use is projected down 755 million bushels as feed and residual and ethanol use prospects are lowered. The U.S. corn export projection is also reduced, down 300 million bushels. Reductions in U.S. corn supplies exceed those for use, leaving projected 2012/13 ending stocks down 698 million bushels.