U.S. feed grain supplies slip on lower yield forecast

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Forecast 2013/14 U.S. feed grain supplies slipped 6.0 million metric tons this month, mostly due to lower forecast corn yields. Feed grain production is forecast 5.7 million tons lower, at 364.5 million tons, compared with 285.8 million in 2012/13. Year to year, 2013/14 production is up for corn, sorghum, and oats but down for barley. Feed grain supplies for 2013/14 are projected at 388.4 million tons, down from last month’s projection of 394.4 million. Supplies for 2012/13 are forecast at 320.2 million tons, up slightly with higher expected corn imports.

Total 2013/14 feed grain use is projected 2.8 million metric tons lower from last month and 39.2 million greater than 2012/13. This month’s reduction reflects lower projected feed and residual disappearance and exports; food, seed, and industrial use (FSI) is projected at 168.8 million metric tons, unchanged this month but up from 160.7 million in 2012/13. Exports are forecast at 35.2 million metric tons, down 0.6 million from the previous projection but 14.9 million over the 2012/13 season.

The U.S. Census Bureau issued revised trade numbers going back to calendar year 2010, affecting trade estimates this month for all feed grains. Corn imports were raised slightly for 2011, and minor adjustments were made to corn and sorghum exports from 2009/10 through 2012/13.

Projected corn exports for 2013/14 are lowered 25 million bushels this month to 1.2 billion bushels.

Feed and Residual

When converted to a September-August marketing year, feed and residual use for the four feed grains plus wheat in 2013/14 is projected at 139.0 million tons, down from 141.4 million last month and up 9 percent from the 2012/13 forecast of 127.4 million. Corn is estimated to account for 93 percent of total feed and residual use in 2013/14, up from 89 percent in 2012/13.

Projected grain-consuming animal units (GCAUs) for 2013/14 are lower than last month at 92.3 million. Estimated GCAUs for 2012/13 are unchanged from last month’s projection at 92.4 million. For 2013/14, feed and residual use per animal unit is projected at 1.41 tons, due to lower poultry inventory.



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