U.S. sorghum production for 2011/12 is forecast at 241 million bushels, down 59 million from last month and 104 million bushels below last year. Expected area harvested for grain is forecast sharply lower at 4.4 million acres and down 420,000 from 2010/11. Based on August 1 conditions, yield is lowered by 10.6 bushels per acre this month and is projected 17.0 bushels per acre below the previous season. Hot dry weather in Texas, Kansas, and Oklahoma has reduced prospects for the 2011 sorghum crop. As of August 8, 27 percent of the U.S. sorghum crop was rated good to excellent, compared with 66 percent a year earlier.
Total use of sorghum in 2011/12 is projected down 55 million bushels this month to 245 million due to tight supplies. Feed and residual is cut 25 million bushels to 55 million as it may be difficult to put together enough sorghum to encourage feedlots to switch rations to include sorghum. Sorghum FSI use is lowered 10 million bushels to 80 million, with lower expected use for fuel ethanol. Export prospects are reduced 20 million bushels to 110 million as demand from Mexico is expected to remain strong, but supplies will be a constraint. U.S. ending stocks projected at 22 million bushels represent minimal “pipeline” stocks.
Total use for sorghum in 2010/11 is forecast at 360 million bushels, unchanged from last month. Feed and residual use remains forecast at 125 million bushels. Sorghum used for ethanol is expected lower during the summer quarter, with tightening supplies cutting FSI use 10 million bushels to 85 million. Exports are raised 10 million bushels to 150 million, reflecting strong sales in July and the ongoing pace of shipments. Ending stocks for 2010/11 are virtually unchanged at 27 million bushels.
Sorghum prices received by farmers for 2011/12 are expected to average $6.00-
$7.00 per bushel, up 90 cents on both ends of the range from last month, as reductions in domestic feed grain supplies raises prices for all feed grains. The 2010/11 average sorghum price is narrowed $0.05 on each end of the range to $5.15-$5.25 per bushel.