USDA lowers 2011/12 corn production forecast

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U.S. feed grain supplies for 2011/12 are projected lower this month with sharp drops in forecast corn and sorghum production. Corn production for 2011/12 is forecast 556 million bushels lower with a reduction in harvested area and lower expected yields. The national average yield is forecast at 153.0 bushels per acre, down 5.7 bushels from last month’s projection as unusually high temperatures and below average precipitation during July across much of the Corn Belt sharply reduced yield prospects.

Total projected corn use for 2011/12 is reduced 340 million bushels. Feed and residual use is projected 150 million bushels lower reflecting the smaller crop and higher expected prices. Corn use for ethanol is projected 50 million bushels lower with tighter supplies and lower forecast gasoline consumption for 2011 and 2012. Projected corn exports for 2011/12 are reduced 150 million bushels with wheat feeding expected to increase. Ending stocks are projected 156 million bushels lower at 714 million. The stocksto- use ratio is projected at 5.4 percent, compared with last month’s projection of 6.4 percent. The season-average farm price is projected at $6.20 to $7.20 per bushel, up 70 cents on each end of the range.

Other significant 2011/12 feed grain changes include a sharp reduction in the forecast sorghum yield and production with prolonged drought and excessive heat in the central and southern Plains. Sorghum exports are projected 20 million bushels lower. Domestic use is also projected lower with a 10-millionbushel reduction in food, seed, and industrial use and a 25-million-bushel reduction in feed and residual use.

Small changes are made to 2009/10 feed grain supplies and usage reflecting the latest revisions to trade estimates from the U.S. Bureau of Census and revisions for 2010 calendar year ethanol production from the Energy Information Administration. Estimated feed and residual use for 2009/10 is adjusted based on these revisions.

Global coarse grain supplies for 2011/12 are projected lower with a 3.6-million-ton increase in beginning stocks more than offset by a 14.0-million-ton reduction in output. The decline in global production is driven by reduced corn and sorghum production in the United States with foreign corn, barley, and oats production all expected higher. Corn production is raised for Brazil, Ukraine, and EU-27, but lowered for Egypt. Barley production is raised for Ukraine and Argentina, but lowered for EU-27. World oats production is raised slightly with an increase for EU-27. World rye production is reduced with a smaller expected crop for EU-27.

Global coarse grain exports for 2011/12 are lowered slightly as reduced U.S. corn and sorghum exports are mostly offset by higher expected foreign corn and barley shipments. Corn exports are increased 1.0 million tons for Ukraine, 0.5 million tons for Argentina, and 0.5 million tons for Canada making up more than half of the reduction in U.S. exports. Barley exports are increased 0.7 million tons for Ukraine, 0.5 million tons for EU-27, and 0.4 million tons for Argentina with the bulk of those increases to Saudi  rabia. Global coarse grain consumption is projected down 8.4 million tons with most of this resulting from lower world corn feed and residual use. More than half of the reduction is from lower corn and sorghum feed and residual use in the United States. Corn feeding in lowered for EU-27, Canada, and South Korea as rising supplies of competitively priced feed quality wheat displace corn usage. World corn ending stocks are projected down 1.1 million tons with increases for Brazil and EU-27 mostly offsetting the U.S. reduction.

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