June 1 stocks of wheat were estimated at 861 million bushels, 36 million above the average trade guess and 52 million larger than projected in the USDA’s WASDE report released earlier this month. Planted acreage of all wheat is estimated at 56.433 million, 1.588 million less than indicted in March. The shortfall was primarily in spring wheat acreage. Harvested acreage of all wheat is forecast at 47.2 million acres, about 460,000 less than harvested last year. Using the yield forecast of 43.1 bushels in the WASDE report released earlier this month, the harvested acreage forecast implies a 2011 crop of 2.034 billion bushels, 256 million less than projected consumption during the 2011-12 marketing year. The acreage estimate implies a potentially tighter supply situation for the 2011-12 marketing year than has been anticipated.
Today’s reports reflect a fundamental shift in the corn market, suggesting that corn prices will come under considerable pressure. The estimates of planted and harvested acreage paint a more constructive picture for soybeans and wheat, so that price declines may be less severe. For corn and soybeans, crop progress will now become the primary market focus.