In the USDA’s September Supply-Demand Report an increase in beginning stocks offset lower production to start the marketing year. Exports were lowered 10 mil. bu. for the old crop, and USDA also reduced old crop feed use by 150 mil. bu. as a result of feeding some of the available supplies from the new crop. According to USDA, “This is up more than 700 million bushels from a year ago. Early new-crop corn use is expected to displace use of 2011 old-crop corn and boost old-crop inventories on September 1. As a result, early new-crop usage reduces the feed and residual calculation in the balance sheet.”
For the new crop, USDA lowered exports by 50 mil. bu. due to competition from South American exporters, raised the feed and residual by 75 mil. bu. and reset the ending stocks up by 83 million to 733 mil. bu. on Aug 31. 2013. That compares to 650 mil. ending stocks estimated in August. The average price range was dropped by 30 cents to $7.20 to 8.60.
2012 Soybean estimate data
USDA forecast the soybean crop at 2.634 bil. bu. with yield at 35.3 bu. per acre, down 0.8 bu. from the August estimate. Harvested acreage was placed at 74.635 mil. acres, unchanged from the August estimate.
Cornbelt state averages
- IL-37 bpa, unchanged from the August estimate—1,466 pods per 18 sq. ft.
- IN-37 bpa, unchanged from the August estimate—1,388 pods
- IA-39 bpa, down 4 bu. from August—1,512 pods
- KS-21 bpa, down 1 bu.—1,038 pods
- MI-37 bpa, up 1 bu.
- MN- 38 bpa, unchanged—1,587 pods
- MO-28 bpa, down 2 bu.—1,347 pods
- NE-40 bpa, down 3 bu.—1,406 pods
- ND-28 bpa, unchanged—1,308 pods
- OH-40 bpa, down 2 bu.—1,674 pods
- SD-28 bpa, down 3 bu.—1,171 pods
- WI-36 bpa unchanged
USDA says, “The September objective yield data for the combined 11 major soybean-producing States (Arkansas, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, and South Dakota) indicate a lower pod count compared with last year, as hot, dry weather during bloom hampered development of the crop in many areas. Compared with final counts for 2011, pod counts are down in all published States. The largest decrease from 2011’s final pod count is expected in Nebraska, down 735 pods per 18 square feet. As of September 2, thirty percent of the United States soybean crop was rated in good to excellent condition, 26 percentage points behind the same week in 2011. During August, good to excellent ratings decreased across the western Corn Belt and into the northern and central Great Plains, but increased in 11 of the 18 published States as beneficial rain fell during the month.”