USDA’s September Supply-Demand Report indicates a 58 mil. bu. drop in soybean production compared to the August estimate. The export estimate was lowered 55 mil. bu to 1.055 bil. and the crush was lowered 15 mil. to 1.5 bil. which is the least since the 1996/97 marketing year, and will result in lower meal exports and domestic meal consumption. Ending stocks were retained at the 115 mil. pipeline minimum. For the new crop the average season price was retained at $15-$17 per bushel, with meal prices up $25 to $485-$515, and oil prices up 1-cent to 54 to 58 cents per pound.
The old crop numbers were adjusted by USDA to reflect a 1.705 bil. bu. crush and a 1.36 bil. bu. export level. The ending stocks for the old crop was lowered 15 mil. to 130 mil. bu.
USDA lowered production slightly on the new corn crop, but helped the balance sheet with more available carry-in for the new marketing year, from higher ending stocks in the old crop. USDA cut demand for the soybean crop to keep ending stocks at the 115 mil. minimum, reducing both exports and crush significantly compared to the old crop year.
Source: FarmGate blog