Unsettled weather pattern ahead

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In the wake of last Monday and Tuesday’s (March 26-27) freeze events across many sections of the state, an unsettled spring-like weather pattern is likely to set up across Michigan for much of the next week.

High pressure across the region will give way to a low pressure center forecast to move through west to east through the region Friday and Saturday (March 30-31), which will bring a good chance for a rain and snow-mix far north and rain showers central and south. Sub-freezing temperatures are likely once again across northern and central sections of the state overnight Thursday (March 29)  into Friday morning (mid 20s north to low 30s across the central Lower Peninsula), and across some northern sections Friday night and Saturday morning (low 30s).

Scattered showers will be possible across northern sections of the state Sunday, while much of the rest of the state will remain dry. Another area of low pressure will bring the threat of more rainfall statewide by Monday (April 2) continuing into Tuesday.

Precipitation totals through early next week are expected to generally range from 0.10 to 0.25 inches north to 0.25 to 0.50 inches south. High temperatures will range from the low and mid-40s north to the upper 40s south Thursday through Saturday, with lows from the mid- and upper 20s north to the mid to upper 30s south. Somewhat warmer temperatures are likely by Sunday and Monday, with highs back into the mid-50s north to mid-60s south. Overall, mean temperatures during the next week are expected to generally average from 5 to 10°F above normal.

Latest medium range forecast guidance is offering a variety of potential jet stream patterns during the next one to two weeks, with a weak ridge projected across western sections of the United States and troughs over the far eastern Pacific and far western Atlantic. This pattern would lead to a dynamic weather pattern across the Great Lakes region with a storm track along the U.S./Canadian border and somewhat cooler, more seasonable temperatures.

The latest NOAA Climate Prediction Center 6-10 day and 8-14 day outlooks (for April 2-6 and April 4-10) both call for near normal mean temperatures across Michigan and for below normal precipitation totals. It is important to note that forecaster confidence in these outlooks is much lower than normal due to the inconsistency of the numerical forecast guidance recently and to disagreement among the different forecast models themselves.

This article was published on MSU Extension News.



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