Weather and demand issues affected ag markets Monday

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Less favorable weather forecasts boosted corn futures Monday. The corn market had recently declined in response to very benign mid-July weather forecasts for the Corn Belt, but the latest predictions were hotter and drier than those posted late last week. That shift apparently sparked renewed bullishness in the CBOT pit, despite the disappointing result (at 8.205 million bushels) on the weekly Export Inspections report. September corn futures rose 7.5 cents to $5.3325/bushel as Monday trading wrapped up, while December added 9.25 cents to $5.005.

Soybeans and meal once again outperformed the oil market Monday. Ongoing old crop tightness seemingly boosted bean and meal prices, whereas its position on the wrong side of the crush equation and Asian vegetable oil weakness apparently weighed upon soybean oil values. The weekly Export Inspections figure (at 2.463 million bushels) was not particularly supportive. Weather forecasts less conducive to large yields may also have sparked buying. August soybean futures jumped 28.0 cents to $14.555/bushel at its Monday settlement, but August soybean oil slid 0.18 cents to 46.96 cents/pound; August soymeal soared $13.5 to $442.1/ton.

Wheat generally rallied in response to trade news Monday. The USDA announced this morning that private exporters had sold 840,000 tonnes of wheat to China in recent days. Moreover, the stated result on the weekly Export Inspections report, at 25.589 million bushels, topped forecasts. On the other hand, improved prospects for the spring wheat crop seemed to weigh upon the Minneapolis market. September CBOT wheat rallied 3.5 cents to $6.63/bushel at the Monday close, while September KCBT wheat climbed 2.25 cents to $6.89, whereas September MGE futures dipped 2.5 cents to $7.61.

Cattle futures were mixed to higher Monday. Bulls are probably hoping the traditional mid-year decline has run its course, but bears very likely expect recent cash and wholesale to continue for another few weeks. The midsession beef report, which stated beef cutouts at moderately lower levels seemed to point in that direction. Nevertheless, August cattle closed 0.12 cents higher at 122.07 cents/pound Monday afternoon, while December rose 0.35 cents to 128.45. August feeder futures sank 0.20 cents to 151.60 cents/pound, whereas November was unchanged at 156.77.

Hog futures turned sharply lower Monday. The Friday afternoon wholesale report, as well as the midday decline, completely reversed midday pork strength seen before the holiday. Traders very likely worry that the whole hog and pork complex is doomed to much more of the same during a traditional summer decline. August hog futures dove 2.20 cents to 95.55 cents/pound at its Monday settlement, while the December contract dropped 1.10 to 80.95.



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