If the MYA price is below the break-even price, the state trigger will be met. There also is a farm trigger that must be met before ACRE payments occur.
Soybean ACRE Payments
The benchmark revenue for soybeans in Illinois is $486.24 per acre. NASS estimates the Illinois soybean yield at 43 bushel yield. The breakeven MYA soybean yield is $11.31 ($486.24 benchmark revenue / 43 yield). WASDE's range for soybeans is from $13.90 to $15.90, with the $11.31 benchmark revenue being below the range. Monthly prices have been above the break-even price: $14.30 in September, $14.20 in October, and $13.80 in November. This suggests that MYA prices below the break-even MYA price are unlikely.
Wheat ACRE Payments
The benchmark revenue is $320.06 per acre. The NASS estimate of Illinois yield is 63 bushel per acre. The breakeven MYA wheat price is $5.08. WASDE's estimate of the range of 2012 MYA prices are from $7.75 per bushel to $8.45 per bushel. Monthly prices all have been above $6.70 per bushel and have been increasing, reaching $8.42 per bushel in November. This suggests that ACRE payments for wheat in Illinois are unlikely.
Given low corn yields, ACRE payments for corn are likely in Illinois. The prospects for corn ACRE payments are higher than estimated in July because of the much lower state corn yields in Illinois (see here for previous estimates). Soybean and Wheat payments are unlikely in 2012.