International wheat prices in 2012/13 are expected to average lower than in the previous crop year, despite smaller crops and shrinking stocks, due to a fall in consumption and large export supplies, the FAO said.
World cereals output is expected to rise in 2012/13 crop year by 1.1 percent to a record 2.371 billion tonnes, boosting closely watched stocks by 1.7 percent to 524 million tonnes at the end of the 2012/13 seasons, the agency said in its first forecast of new grain crops.
Coarse grains production is seen rising 3.7 percent to 1.207 billion tonnes, driven by a 4.1 percent increase in maize (corn) output to 916 million tonnes, the agency said citing preliminary forecasts.
But the coarse grains market is set to remain tight due to very low level of stocks, providing further support to prices, it said.
World prices of oilcrops and their derived products, which have been rising since the start of this year, are likely to remain firm due to an increasingly tight supply and demand situation of the current season, it said.
World soybean output is estimated to fall 9.5 percent to 240 million tonnes in 2011/12 year and the likelihood that soybeans would have to compete for cropland with maize, especially in the United States, in 2012/13 adds further support to prices, it said.