Domestic corn use includes a 100 million bushel cut in exports to 1.150 billion bushels, both ethanol use at 4.5 billion and feed and residual use at 4.150 billion remained constant. USDA also removed 193 million bushels from beginning stocks, based on the September Stocks estimate released late last month. The total use of 11.150 billion bushels compared to 10.706 billion in production was is the first shortfall of its kind in the past 38 years for both corn and beans.
USDA’s Soybean production estimate placed the crop at 2.860 billion bushels, compared to the 2.634 billion in September, which was a result of a 2.5 bushel per acre increase in the national average yield to 37.8 bushels per acre. Harvested acreage was estimated at 75.693 million, up from 74.6 million in September, a 1.1 million acre increase. USDA said, “Compared with last month, yield forecasts are higher or unchanged across all States. Area for harvest in the United States is forecast at 75.7 million acres, up 1 percent from September and up 3 percent from last year.”
The 226 million additional bushels of soybeans will be used, and not parked into carryover. USDA said, “U.S. soybean exports for 2012/13 are raised 210 million bushels to 1.265 billion reflecting increased supplies, lower prices, and the record pace of export sales through early October.
Soybean crush is raised 40 million bushels to 1.540 billion mostly due to increased soybean meal exports and increased soybean supplies. Soybean crush is also supported by an increase in domestic disappearance of soybean oil which reflects the impact of the increase of the biodiesel mandate for 2013 recently announced by the Environmental Protection Agency. Soybean ending stocks are projected at 130 million bushels, up 15 million from last month.”
With soybean demand remaining at high levels, USDA’s increased production numbers indicates the market still has a considerable amount of rationing to do, with prices returning to higher levels.
Regarding prices, USDA said, “Prices for soybeans and products are all reduced this month. The U.S. season-average soybean price range for 2012/13 is projected at $14.25 to $16.25 per bushel, down $0.75 on both ends of the range. The soybean meal price is projected at $470 to $500 per short ton, down $15 on both ends of the range. The soybean oil price range is projected at 53 to 57 cents per pound, down 1 cent on both ends.”
Globally, USDA reported, “Revisions to the world 2012/13 oilseeds estimates include reduced soybean exports for Brazil and Argentina, increased soybean imports for China and Mexico, and increased soybean crush for Argentina, China, and Mexico. Global oilseed stocks for 2012/13 are increased 3.6 million tons to 64 million. Soybeans account for most of the change, with higher stocks in Argentina, Brazil, China, and the United States.”
Source: FarmGate blog