Editor’s note: This market commentary is provided by the Dairy Division at FCStone/Downes-O’Neill in Chicago, Ill.
Yesterday was the lightest volume session since the International Dairy Foods Association conference, trading just over 600 contracts, and it ultimately saw prices capitulate in a slightly lower trade after an early, modest gain.
We will reiterate the age-old lesson: the trend goes with volume price moves; limited volume price changers typically fail to confirm any trend.
We are short-term bearish; we are medium- and long-term bullish. Spot dairy products across the board are stalled or soft; futures are firming as hedgers and specs alike pile into the buying mode ― likely in anticipation of what’s to come, not because of what’s here. Chinese New Year starts this weekend, so that buying strength is likely to be absent from the market for several weeks before returning to normal levels.
Spot session results:
Block cheese: $1.645 (unchanged)
Barrel cheese $1.5425 (up 1 cent)
Grade A NFDM: $1.52 (unchanged)
Butter: $1.555 (unchanged)
Stop us if you’ve seen this one before ― soybeans leading the way to the upside, while wheat continues to drag on corn prices. The way we got there was a bit different, but the result was the same yesterday ― prices started out falling sharply and rallying into the close, which is a reversal of the recent trend, but by the end of the day beans were 6.75 cents higher at 1495.5, while wheat closed down 5.5 cents at 757.5 dragging on corn which closed down 5.25 cents to 729.
This morning, we look for corn to open 3 to 6 cents ower and beans 8 to 12 lower.
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