Editor’s note: This market commentary is provided by the Dairy Division at FCStone/Downes-O’Neill in Chicago, Ill.
The cheese spot market woke up and found 12 trades in the barrels. Prices plunged lower before rebounding. The block was silent. And futures, on light volume, found support; we are range-bound and I don’t see anything in the short-term that is likely to break us out of it.
Since last Thursday, the block price is up 2.00 cents at $1.7600. There have been no trades. The barrel price was 2.00 cents higher at $1.7300 with 13 trades. The spread is 3.00 cents, inside the historical range of 3 to 5 cents.
Early in the morning in the grain complex, it looked like there might be blood in the streets by mid-day, but the grain markets found buy-side support quickly and stabilized. Corn even traded higher in nearby months for a short time before faltering into the close. Beans did the opposite, rallying into the close to see March13 beans close down only 5 ¾ cents to $13.86 ½ after having spent most of the day double digits lower. After being higher most of the day, wheat managed to close just a tick higher in March13 but lower elsewhere. A March13 corn price challenge of the $6.82 level looks likely amidst bearish export demand expectations.
This morning, we look for the grain complex to open mixed.
Block cheese: $1.76 (unchanged)
Barrel cheese $1.73 (unchanged)
Grade A NFDM: $1.5575 (unchanged)
Butter: $1.495 (unchanged)
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