Crop markets are starting the week in mixed fashion

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Corn prices continued sliding in response to Friday’s WASDE report. Despite having fallen for nine straight sessions, the WASDE’s increase in ending stocks for both 2013/14 and 2014/15 is depressing prices. Moreover, prospects for ideal Corn Belt weather during the July pollination period promises a bumper harvest this fall. September corn slid 4.0 cents to $3.7425/bushel in Sunday night action, while December slumped 4.25 cents to $3.805.

The soy complex is mixed in early Monday trading. The WASDE report also boosted soybean carryout for both the current and next crop years, which sent prices tumbling. Anticipation of near-perfect weather during the second half of July is probably spurring sales as well. Bullish bean traders may be responding to Friday’s bounce from post-report lows. Demand strength seems to be supporting meal, whereas soy and palm oil seemed to be locked in a death spiral. August soybean futures climbed 9.25 cents to $12.05/bushel early Monday morning, but November futures added 0.25 cent to $10.7525. August soyoil fell 0.14 cents to 36.63 cents/pound, while August soymeal gained $3.0 to $390.8/ton.

Wheat futures are narrowly mixed to start the week. Last Friday’s WASDE report indicated reduced U.S. wheat exports and increased domestic stocks during the coming months, thereby accelerating the recent downtrend. The Chicago and Minneapolis markets continued sliding over the weekend, whereas KC HRW wheat firmed, possibly due to the looming end of the current harvest. September CBOT wheat edged 1.0 cent lower to $5.25/bushel soon after dawn Monday, while September KC wheat bounced 0.5 cent to $6.3675/bushel and September MWE wheat sagged 0.75 cent to $6.2725/bushel.

Cattle futures bounced from fresh lows Friday. Cattle futures turned sharply lower last week when it became apparent that cash prices were weakening. For example, cattle traded at $156 in Nebraska Friday, down $1 to $2 from Wednesday and down $2 from last week. Futures stabilized and began to recover following USDA’s supply demand update. USDA raised the fed steer price forecast for Q3 and Q4. August live cattle settled 1.20 cents higher at 149.12 cents/pound Friday afternoon, while December rallied 0.72 cents to 153.00 cents. Meanwhile, August feeder cattle advanced 0.47 cents to 211.07 cents/pound.

Hog futures ended the week having bounced from early lows. Although wholesale losses caused sustained slippage in Chicago prices through mid-session, steady cash quotes seemingly provided fresh support. Estimated daily slaughter number at 275000 was much lower than a year ago. August hog futures jumped 0.73 cents at 128.67 cents/pound at their Friday close and December rose 0.40 cents to 104.35 cents.

The cotton market is beginning the week on a strong note. ICE cotton ended last week badly after the USDA revised its 2014/15 crop forecast much higher. US cotton production for 2014 was boosted from 15 million bales to 16.5 million. The global situation remains very bearish, with 2014/15 ending stocks forecast at 105.68 million bales. However, continued equity market strength seemingly implies vigorous domestic demand for the foreseeable future. December cotton began the week 0.40 cents higher at 68.52 cents per pound, while March advanced 0.49 cents at 69.53 cents/lb.



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