The U.S. 2012/13 feed grain supply is forecast at 321.4 million metric tons, up 2.7 million from last month’s forecast and 37.0 million below last marketing year. An increase in the feed grain supply is projected despite a reduction in estimated corn and sorghum yields and subsequent production because carryin stocks are projected higher. A decline in feed and residual use in 2011/12 is the primary contributing factor to the 4.1-million-ton increase in beginning stocks this month. Forecast feed grain production, at 284.5 million tons, is 1.3 million below last month’s forecast and 39.0 million below last year.
Projected feed grain use for 2012/13 increased 0.6 million tons as larger forecast feed and residual use offset a decline in exports. Total use is forecast 25.5 million below last year at 300.1 million tons, compared with the 2011/12 estimate of 325.6 million. Feed and residual disappearance is projected 1.9 million tons higher this month, in part reflecting growth in expected September-December corn disappearance with an expected rise in early new-crop usage during the 2011/12 marketing year. Exports were lowered 1.3 million tons from last month’s forecast to 34.6 million. Ending stocks are forecast 2.1 million tons higher than last month’s forecast, to 21.3 million.
When converted to a September-August marketing year, U.S. feed and residual use for the four feed grains plus wheat in 2012/13 is projected to total 114.3 million tons, 0.2 million higher than last month’s estimate and 9.6 million below the 2011/12 revised estimate of 123.9 million. Corn is estimated to account for 92 percent of feed and residual use in 2012/13, up from 90 percent the previous marketing year.
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The projected index of grain-consuming animal units (GCAU) for 2012/13 is 91.9, down from 92.1 last month and 1.5 lower than last year’s estimate. The grain used per GCAU is 1.24 tons, unchanged from last month and 0.1 ton lower than 2011/12. In the index components, GCAUs are decreased for cattle on feed, other beef cattle, and broilers from last month.
USDA’s Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report will be released on September 28th and will provide an indication of sow farrowing intentions into early 2013. Higher feed grain prices are a contributing factor to the lower carcass weights that are forecast for the second half of the year and will ultimately contribute to a net reduction in pork production.