Forecast corn carryout stocks for 2012/13 slip

 Resize text         Printer-friendly version of this article Printer-friendly version of this article

The September 28 Grain Stocks report indicates September 1, 2012, U.S. corn stocks of 988 million bushels, the lowest carryout since 1995/96, and 193 million bushels below September’s WASDE forecast. The stocks data and nearly final data for other domestic use imply a fourth-quarter feed and residual use of 335 million bushels, 115 million below estimates from the fourth quarter of 2010/11.

U.S. feed grain production for 2012/13 is forecast at 284.1 million metric tons, down from last month’s forecast of 284.5 million. The month-to-month decrease reflects reduced forecast production for corn and smaller production estimates for barley and oats from the Small Grains 2012 Summary report. Planted area for the four feed grains is increased 542,000 acres, and harvested-for-grain acres are increased 208,000 acres this month. Yields per harvested acre for the four grains combined are down slightly at 2.93 tons per acre. Beginning stocks in 2012/13 are lowered to 27.8 million tons, based on the recent Grain Stocks report.

Total 2012/13 feed grain supply is forecast at 315.8 million tons, down 5.6 million from last month and down relative to the 2011/12 estimate of 358.5 million tons. Total 2012/13 feed grain utilization is projected at 297.0 million tons, down from the September forecast of 300.1 million and down from the 2011/12 estimate of 330.7 million tons. The month-to-month decline is attributed to lower corn exports. Total projected feed grain ending stocks for 2012/13 are lowered 2.5 million tons to 18.8 million, mainly reflecting reduced carryin from the 2011/12 marketing year.

  click image to zoom

Feed Use

On a September-August marketing year basis for 2012/13, U.S. feed and residual use for the four feed grains plus wheat is projected to total 114.0 million tons, down 17.2 million from the revised total of 131.2 million tons in 2011. Corn is estimated to account for 92 percent of feed and residual use in 2012/13, down from 93 percent in 2011/12. The projected index of grain-consuming animal units (GCAU) in 2012/13 is 91.6 million units, down slightly from 92.6 million in 2011/12. Feed and residual per GCAU in 2012/13 is estimated at 1.24 tons, down from 1.42 tons in 2011/12. In the index components, GCAUs are decreased for beef, dairy, pork, and poultry.

USDA’s September 19 Milk Production report indicates that milk production in the 23 major producing States during August totaled 15.3 billion pounds, down 0.2 percent from August 2011. Production per cow averaged 1,803 pounds for August, 10 pounds below last year, primarily due to higher temperatures. The 2012 milk production forecast is reduced from last month, as slower growth in milk per cow more than offsets a slower expected decline in cow numbers. Higher forecast milk prices in late 2012 and into 2013 are expected to slow the rate of decline in cow numbers and help support higher growth in milk per cow in 2013.

U.S. inventory of all hogs and pigs on September 1, 2012, was 67.5 million head. This is up slightly from September 1, 2011, and up 3 percent from June 1, 2012. U.S. hog breeding inventory in the third quarter of 2012 is estimated at 5.79 million head, down slightly from both last year and the previous month, according to the September 28 Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report. Market hog inventory, at 61.7 million head, is up slightly from last year and up 3 percent from last quarter. The June-August 2012 pig crop, at 29.3 million head, was down slightly from 2011. Sows farrowing during this period totaled 2.89 million head, down 1 percent from 2011. The sows farrowed during this quarter represented 49 percent of the breeding herd. The average pigs saved per litter was a record high of 10.13 for the June August period, compared to 10.03 last year. Pigs saved per litter by size of operation ranged from 7.60 for operations with 1-99 hogs and pigs to 10.20 for operations with more than 5,000 hogs and pigs. The recent Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report estimated a small decline in the June-August pig crop and indicates that producers intend to reduce farrowings through early 2013, but continued growth in pigs per litter is expected to mitigate much of the decline in farrowings.

The forecast for 2013 poultry production is raised slightly. USDA’s October 3 Broiler Hatchery report indicates that broiler-type egg sets have increased from a year earlier. Broiler-type chicks placed are up slightly to 154 million chicks for meat production. Cumulative placements from January 1, 2012, through September 29, 2012, are 6.37 billion, down 2 percent from the same period a year earlier.

According to the September 21, 2012, Chickens and Eggs report, broiler-type chicks hatched during August 2012 totaled 758 million and were down slightly from August 2011. Eggs in incubators totaled 596 million on September 1, 2012, down 1 percent from a year earlier. Leading breeders placed 7.05 million broiler- type pullet chicks for future domestic hatchery supply flocks during August 2012, down 3 percent from August 2011. Egg-type chicks hatched and pullet chicks for future hatchery supply have been increasing.

USDA’s September 14 Turkey Hatchery report indicates that turkey eggs in incubators on September 1, 2012, in the United States totaled 26.3 million, down 6 percent from September 1, 2011. Eggs in incubators were down 9 percent from the August 1, 2012, total of 28.9 million eggs. Turkey poults hatched during August 2012 in the United States totaled 23.8 million, down slightly from August 2011. Poults hatched were down 9 percent from the July 2012 total of 26.2 million poults.

USDA’s September 23 Cattle on Feed report indicated that cattle and calves on feed for slaughter market in the United States (feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head) totaled 10.6 million head on September 1, 2012. The inventory was 1 percent below the September 1, 2011, estimate. Placements in feedlots during August totaled 2 million, 11 percent below 2011. This is the second lowest cattle placement for the month of August since the series began in 1996. Net placements were 1.94 million head. During August, placements of cattle and calves weighing less than 600 pounds were 482,000, 600-699 pounds were 385,000, 700-799 pounds were 475,000, and 800 pounds and greater were 660,000.

Marketings of fed cattle during August totaled 1.96 million, 5 percent below 2011. Other disappearance totaled 61,000 during August, 15 percent below 2011.



Comments (0) Leave a comment 

Name
e-Mail (required)
Location

Comment:

characters left


RX7320

When moving hay to feed dairy cows, farmers are seeking a versatile tractor. KITOI’s new Tier 4 RX series tractors ... Read More

View all Products in this segment

View All Buyers Guides

)
Feedback Form
Leads to Insight