Higher feed use more than offsets reduced export prospects

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U.S. feed grain supplies are increased by 549,000 metric tons on higher projected corn imports, slightly offset by a lower projection for oat imports. The strong pace of corn imports to date supports the import change. Feed grain use is raised by 585,000 tons as a 2.272-million-ton increase in feed and residual use more than offsets a 1.687-million-ton decline in exports. Total feed grain use is projected to reach 299.9 million tons in 2012/13, down from 330.7 million in 2011/12. Corn export prospects are down due to sluggish sales and shipments. Sorghum exports are edged up, indicating a stronger-than-expected pace of exports to Mexico. Oats exports are moved downward, resulting in total feed grain exports of 23.2 million tons. Food, seed, and industrial use forecasts are unchanged, and feed grain ending stocks are projected at 18.9 million tons, 36,000 below last month.

Feed and residual use for the four feed grains plus wheat on a September-August marketing year basis is projected at 128.8 million metric tons this month, up from 126.5 million last month. Grain-consuming animal units (GCAUs) are projected at 91.8 million this month, up from last month's estimate of 91.7 million. The 2013 forecast of total red meat and poultry production is raised from last month as higher beef, broiler, and turkey production is expected to more than offset lower forecast pork production. Feed and residual use for the four feed grains plus wheat per animal unit is 1.40 tons per GCAU this month, up slightly from 1.38 tons last month. This compares with 1.41 tons in 2011/12.



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